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The New Abwehr Hypothesis of The Operation Trump: A Study In Political Psychology, Political Criminology, and Psychohistory, and as the aid for the General, Criminal and the Counterintelligence Investigations of Donald Trump – by Michael Novakhov, M.D. (Mike Nova): Web Research, Analysis, Hypotheses, and Opinions | Current News | Reviews of media reports | Selected reading lists | Site: http://trumpinvestigations.org/ | Bike With Mike! Psycho-Historically And Hermeneutically.

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Recent Posts – Trump Investigations Blog – In 25 Posts – RSS Feed Address

Recent Posts – Trump Investigations Blog – In 25 Posts


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5:30 AM 11/30/2017 – Is the “Trump-Russia affair” an elaborate Leftist plot? – M.N. 

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Is the “Trump-Russia affair” an elaborate Leftist plot, carried over directly from the “Obama Leftist plot”, and masquerading as the Rightist Alliance of Putin’s regime, Trump Republicans, and the European rightists? 

At the head of this plot might be the certain elements of the New Russian Left, visible and invisible, and including the various military-political circles, German (Stasi dominated) Intelligence, and the ubiquitous Chinese, practicing all kinds of deceptions against everybody, as their traditional “Art of War” is. 

A nice combination, well screwed-up little Leftist Bolt from the sky… 

M.N.  

11.30.17 

Quotes from “The Art of War” by Sun Tzu:

“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. 

_____________________________

 


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5:54 PM 11/10/2017 – A psychiatrist says Trumps mental state is a legitimate inquiry

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Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, in a photo released by the government in August. Credit KCNA, via KNS, via Associated Press 
Letters: Trump, Kim and the Possibility of War

A psychiatrist says Trumps mental state is a legitimate inquiry, and another reader suggests that history will judge him poorly if there is a war.

Op-Ed Contributor: How You Can Help Prevent Mass Shootings

There is a role for ordinary citizens in the prevention of mass shootings like the one in Sutherland Springs, Tex., where 26 crosses have been erected to commemorate those killed at the First Baptist Church.

Contributing Op-Ed Writer: Sutherland Springs Only Happens to Be in Texas

There is nothing particularly Lone Star State-ish about a mass killing these days. Ask New York, or Las Vegas.

Trump, Kim and the Possibility of War

To the Editor:

Re “Slouching Toward War,” by Nicholas Kristof (column, Nov. 5):

If people are complacent about a high chance of a war in which there would be 300,000 predicted deaths in the first few days if nonnuclear, and a million in the first day if nuclear, then we have reached a state of madness.

Many are concerned about the state of mind of our president, who has control of the nuclear arsenal. You will hear little from organized psychiatry on this matter, because of the warning to its members that it is unethical to state a professional opinion about the president’s behavior without a personal examination or his consent.

Most of my fellow psychiatrists are not aware that there is an exception to this ethics code: the extended analyses of world leaders under controlled conditions of scholarship.

Jerrold Post founded the Central Intelligence Agency’s personality analysis center, and I witnessed him speak at the 2017 annual meeting of the American Psychiatric Association, where he said it is unethical for mental health professionals not to contribute during these perilous times.

Earlier this year, Dr. Post, who studied Kim Jung-un and his father, warned in a Washington Post article that Kim’s capacity for brutality and his apparent spontaneity could be compounded by President Trump’s own impulsive acts.

Continue reading the main story

Common sense suggests that a small, impoverished country should not be allowed to cause a nuclear war and that the world powers can together use their heads and find a way to prevent this — that is, assuming that our leaders don’t want war.

JEFFREY B. FREEDMAN, NEW YORK

To the Editor:

Nicholas Kristof says the Congressional Research Service estimates that as many as 300,000 people could die in the first few days of war with North Korea. He quotes a Stanford security expert who thinks that number could easily be a million if it were a nuclear exchange.

Senator Lindsey Graham then relays a conversation he had with President Trump, in which he says Mr. Trump insisted: “If thousands die, they’re going to die over there. They’re not going to die here.”

That seems to be a particularly chilling calculus. Apparently this president believes that the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocents would be acceptable, as long as they are not American deaths.

That may play well with his base, but history might think otherwise.

MITCHELL KAPNER, CARY, NC

Trump, Kim and the Possibility of War

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The F.B.I.’s Black Phantom Menace

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Welcome to the new McCarthyism

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How Wilbur Ross is connected to the Paradise Papers

The Paradise Papers reportedly name Donald Trump’s Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross for not disclosing business ties to the Kremlin. Watch the video to find out how and whether or not the Commerce Dept is responding.

In an earlier far more innocent era, my mother told me you will be judged by the friends you keep. For many Americans, this was axiomatic. However, in this cynical era, you are often judged by who you know or who knows you. In some sense, this is a Kafkaesque arrangement where judgments and the assignment of guilt are made without knowledge or forethought.

Take, for example, the stories emanating from revelations of the Paradise Papers. This massive trove of 13.4 million records was founded 100 years ago and operates in various points around the globe managing the assets of very wealthy people. Reflecting millions of loans, financial transactions and e-mails, the data reveal how wealthy individuals manage their portfolios.

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Recently a German newspaper, Süddeutsche Zeitung, unraveled the connections indicating how the wealthy sometimes avoid taxes and make business deals.

Wilbur Ross, the Secretary of Commerce, was caught in the web of these revelations. Despite divesting himself of most business interests when he joined the Trump cabinet, he kept a shipping company, Navigator Holdings, through a chain of companies in the Cayman Islands. Discussing Ross’ Paradise Papers file Jon Swaine of the Guardian noted that Navigator is a company operated by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s son-in-law an allegation that put Ross in the journalistic crosshairs.

The very mention of a transaction in which Russia is included is now branded “collusion.”

Navigator is paid $20 million a year to ship gas out of Russia for a Russian company named Sibur and Sibur is co-owned by Kirill Shamalov, Putin’s son-in-law. Commenting on this matter, Ross said “there is nothing whatsoever improper about Navigator having a relationship with Sibur.” He continued, “The fact that it happens to be called a Russian company does not mean that there’s any evil in it.” That is true on several levels.

This is a third party transaction in which the investor through a holding company joined a deal worth at least $200 a year. Mr. Ross probably knew very little about the transaction and, my guess is, he was unaware of any Russian involvement.

Moreover, the deal does not violate any laws, nor is there any suspicion that is the case. It would appear as if this is a witch hunt in which any reference to Russia is a form of collusion. Clearly this falls into the category of “false news.” But it has even darker implications.

The very mention of a transaction in which Russia is included is now branded “collusion.” You might even describe this phenomenon as contemporary McCarthyism, albeit McCarthy made allegations about those who joined the Communist Party as opposed to present claims that have a gossamer thin relationship to Russian officials.

My guess is these claims aren’t going anywhere, certainly not into the hands of Mr. Mueller, the Special Counsel. But these violations of privacy and reputation should not be overlooked. It is precisely the frivolous investigations of this kind that discourage good people from government service.

The Paradise Papers are certainly not the Pumpkin Papers and, in time, their salacious stories will be replaced. Unfortunately, it will leave in its wake a number of unsubstantiated claims and reputations that have been unfairly besmirched.

Dr. Herb London is president of the London Center for Policy Research and is co-author with Jed Babbin of “The BDS War Against Israel.”

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As the Russiagate Investigation Builds Momentum, Trump’s Allies Attack the CIA

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Carter Page, a foreign-policy adviser to Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, speaks with reporters after a day of questions from the House Intelligence Committee in Washington, November 2, 2017. (AP Photo / J. Scott Applewhite)

The Russiagate news has sharply accelerated over the past two weeks: the indictments of two senior Trump campaign officials, Paul Manafort and Rick Gates; the guilty plea from George Papadopoulos about his multiple campaign contacts with Russian officials and intermediaries, including those who told him they possessed “dirt” on Hillary Clinton, including “thousands of emails,” before news of the Russian hacking of the Democratic National Committee was made public; the rumors that next to be indicted by Robert Mueller, the special counsel investigating Russiagate, will be General Michael Flynn, and perhaps his son, too; the avalanche of news about Russian bots and trolls using Facebook, Twitter, and other platforms to exacerbate political divisions in 2016 and to support the election of Donald Trump, including the creation of numerous fake personalities; and, of course, the bob-and-weave testimony of Carter Page, a former Trump campaign policy aide, about his pattern of Russian contacts in 2016, delivered to the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI).

And there’s a lot more to come, including—according to The Wall Street Journal—the likely criminal indictment of at least six Russian officials for their role in the 2016 cyberattacks. In response, Trump, Page, and Trump’s CIA director Mike Pompeo are escalating their attacks on the CIA and its intelligence-community partners.

Page’s testimony, all 200-plus pages of it, is popcorn-worthy entertainment, with him denying, obfuscating, and prevaricating under intense questioning from both Republicans and Democrats on the HPSCI. For instance, there’s an exchange between Page and ranking Democrat Adam Schiff over Page’s exasperating assertion that he’s claiming his Fifth Amendment right to protect himself from self-incrimination while, at the same time, announcing that he’s willing to turn over to the committee certain documents and e-mails, but not others (see pages 26-29 of the transcript). At one point, Schiff asks, “Dr. Page, is it your position that you have a Fifth Amendment right to provide nonincriminating emails or documents to the committee but withhold incriminating documents from the committee and selectively comply with the subpoena?”

What Page is apparently worried about is that, for years, the US intelligence community has been watching him and, no doubt, intercepting his e-mails, phone calls, and other communications, and that recorded transcripts and copies of all of those are in the HPSCI’s (and Mueller’s) files. As early as 2013, Page came to the attention of US authorities because of his contacts with suspected Russian spies, who apparently were seeking to recruit him. In 2016, during the campaign, Page was secretly monitored by US intel over renewed contacts with Russians while he was serving on Trump’s foreign-policy team. In April, The New York Times reported that the FBI obtained a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court–ordered wiretap against Page in 2016 “based on evidence that he was operating as a Russian agent.” Among his contacts then were a range of leading Russian officials, including top executives of Gazprom, for whom Page was both an adviser and investor. In September 2016, Harry Reid, then the Senate minority leader, wrote to then-FBI Director James Comey about Page’s alleged contacts with “high-ranking sanctioned [Russian] individuals,” part of what Reid—who’d been briefed on what the intelligence community was learning—called evidence of “significant and disturbing ties” between the Trump campaign and Russian officials, according to Yahoo News.

No wonder, then, that Page, echoing Donald Trump, is on the warpath against the CIA, the FBI, the National Security Agency, and other elements of the US intelligence community. (Those three agencies concurred, in January 2017, that the Russian government, under the direct supervision of Vladimir Putin, hacked into the DNC system and released its contents to WikiLeaks and other outlets in order to tilt the election in Trump’s favor.) In his rambling, often confusing testimony to the HPSCI, and in letters to the committee that he released, Page bitterly denounced his accusers, including the HPSCI, the FBI, and the media, for “civil rights abuses” and “an ongoing witch hunt,” part of what he called “an intensive domestic political surveillance operation… initiated on behalf of the Clinton/Obama regime.”

Yet Page—who may or may not decide to cooperate with Mueller, and in fact may already be doing so—explicitly stated the reason that he’s willing to provide some documents to the House committee but not others: because, he said, he’s concerned that some of the information he might be forced to turn over will in some way contradict what Mueller and the congressional intelligence committees already know, from having looked at the transcripts and copies of his phone calls, texts, and e-mails. The information that he might provide “cannot be as comprehensive as the information that was already illegally collected against me,” he told the HPSCI, and he said he’s worried that some of it might not “match up.” As he put it, “The National Security Agency, CIA, and FBI have infinitely greater data processing capabilities than I do.”

Page’s, and Trump’s, attacks on the CIA et al. might be intended to provide cover, at least as far as the public is concerned, for Page’s overt and covert contacts with leading Russian officials. In his testimony, Page revealed that he did, in fact, meet with Russia’s deputy prime minister—though, earlier, appearing on Chris Hayes’s MSNBC program, Page said his contacts with Russians were limited to “man in the street”-type interactions. At one point in during Page’s testimony, Schiff read to him the text of an e-mail that Page had sent to two Trump campaign officials on July 8, 2016. It read: “I’ll send you guys a readout soon regarding some incredible insights and outreach I’ve received from a few Russian legislators and senior members of the presidential administration here.” Yet under repeated questioning, Page stuck to his story about man-in-the-street contacts and a very brief, “five second” interaction with Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich.

By attacking the CIA—which Trump once compared to Nazi Germany, during the campaign—Page may be getting some help from the CIA itself, at least from its Trump-appointed director, Mike Pompeo. In a major exposé broken by The Intercept, reporters Duncan Campbell and James Risen—the latter a Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter formerly with The New York Times and Los Angeles Times—revealed that Pompeo recently met with former high-level NSA official William Binney to discuss Binney’s widely discredited theory that the DNC wasn’t hacked at all and that the WikiLeaks-published e-mails resulted from an internal leak. According to Binney, the meeting with Pompeo came about because Trump himself told Pompeo to meet with him. (Pompeo began the meeting by saying, “The president told me I should talk to you.”) “This is crazy,” a former CIA official told The Intercept. “You’ve got all these intelligence agencies saying the Russians did the hack. To deny that is like coming out with the theory that the Japanese didn’t bomb Pearl Harbor.” CNN, which also reported the Pompeo-Binney meeting, called Binney the purveyor of a “conspiracy theory.”

Unfortunately, that exact “conspiracy theory” was circulated via The Nation this past summer in a widely criticized story by Patrick Lawrence, who cited a memo published by Binney and some of his associates at an outfit called Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity. In that piece, Lawrence uncritically transmitted the VIPS memo’s claim that the DNC affair was “an inside job” by a DNC official, and not the work of the Russians. (Many Nation contributors, as well as a dissident group within VIPS itself and a fact-checker and outside security expert hired by The Nation, challenged Lawrence’s claims. An editor’s note by Nation editor and publisher Katrina vanden Heuvel, attached to the Lawrence article after it was published, concluded: “As part of the editing process, however, we should have made certain that several of the article’s conclusions were presented as possibilities, not as certainties.”)

So far, Pompeo hasn’t officially challenged the CIA’s conclusions about the 2016 hack attack. “The Director stands by, and has always stood by, the January 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment,” a CIA spokesman told The Intercept. But Pompeo strayed off the straight and narrow at least once. A few weeks ago, he made this statement: “The intelligence community’s assessment is that the Russian meddling that took place did not affect the outcome of the election.” In fact, however, the community made no such conclusion, opting in its January 2017 report not to conclude anything at all, one way or the other, about whether Russia’s actions affected the election’s outcome. Noting that making a political calculation along those lines was beyond its scope, the Intelligence Community Assessment concluded, “We did not make an assessment of the impact that Russian activities had on the outcome of the 2016 election.” So Pompeo’s statement was flat-out wrong—and worrisome.

Meanwhile, a little-noticed but important story in The Wall Street Journal last week reported that the Justice Department is pretty well convinced, to say the least, that the Russians did it. Reports the Journal: “The Justice Department has identified more than six members of the Russian government involved in hacking the Democratic National Committee’s computers and swiping sensitive information that became public during the 2016 presidential election, according to people familiar with the investigation. Prosecutors and agents have assembled evidence to charge the Russian officials and could bring a case next year, these people said.”

Stay tuned. It now appears that Manafort, Gates, and Papadopoulos are not the only ones who will face charges in the Russiagate affair.

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Putin Trump – Google News: All eyes on Trump and Putin attending Vietnam summit – USA TODAY

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USA TODAY
All eyes on Trump and Putin attending Vietnam summit
USA TODAY
When President Trump likely meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a summit in Vietnam, all eyes will be on how they interact and whether they can agree on contentious issues.Trump and Putin could meet Friday or Saturday in Da Nang on the …
Prospect of TrumpPutin meeting hangs over Asia-Pacific summitCNN
TrumpPutin meeting thrown in doubtNew York Post
TrumpPutin Meeting Likely at APEC Summit, but US Officials Urge CautionVoice of America
Telegraph.co.uk –Newsweek –CNBC
all 217 news articles »

 Putin Trump – Google News

As the Russiagate Investigation Builds Momentum, Trump’s Allies Attack the CIA – The Nation.

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The Nation.
As the Russiagate Investigation Builds Momentum, Trump’s Allies Attack the CIA
The Nation.
Carter Page, a foreign-policy adviser to Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, speaks with reporters after a day of questions from the House Intelligence Committee in Washington, November 2, 2017. … the special counsel investigating Russiagate and more »

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Mike Flynn – Google News: Mueller Probing Pre-Election Flynn Meeting With Pro-Russia Congressman – NBCNews.com

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NBCNews.com
Mueller Probing Pre-Election Flynn Meeting With Pro-Russia Congressman
NBCNews.com
WASHINGTON — Investigators for Special Counsel Robert Mueller are questioning witnesses about an alleged September 2016 meeting between Mike Flynn, who later briefly served as President Donald Trump’s national security adviser, and Rep.
WSJ: Mueller probes Flynn role in plot to deliver cleric to TurkeyCNN
Special counsel’s interest in Mike Flynn comes into sharper focusMSNBC
Bob Mueller Seems to Be Closing in on Mike Flynn—and the Indictments Could Be ExplosiveNew York Magazine
Bloomberg –Washington Examiner –NBCNews.com –Wall Street Journal
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 Mike Flynn – Google News

Mike Flynn – Google News: First Read’s Morning Clips: Are Charges Coming Soon for Michael Flynn? – NBCNews.com

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NBCNews.com
First Read’s Morning Clips: Are Charges Coming Soon for Michael Flynn?
NBCNews.com
Mueller is applying renewed pressure on Flynn following his indictment of Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort, three sources familiar with the investigation told NBC News. The investigators are speaking to multiple witnesses in coming days to gain …
Mueller’s Michael Flynn Investigation Is Heating UpThe Daily Caller
Flynn Investigation Part of ‘Great Sleight of Hand’ That is Russia GateSputnik Internationalall 178 news articles »

 Mike Flynn – Google News

Mike Flynn – Google News: Special counsel’s interest in Mike Flynn comes into sharper focus – MSNBC

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MSNBC
Special counsel’s interest in Mike Flynn comes into sharper focus
MSNBC
Special Counsel Robert Mueller is investigating an alleged plan involving former White House National Security Adviser Mike Flynn to forcibly remove a Muslim cleric living in the U.S. and deliver him to Turkey in return for millions of dollars 
WSJ: Mueller probes Flynn role in plot to deliver cleric to TurkeyCNN
Mueller Probing Possible Deal Between Turks, Flynn During Presidential TransitionNBCNews.com
Robert Mueller investigating Mike Flynn’s possible role in plot to kidnap Turkish cleric: ReportWashington Examiner
Newsweek –NBCNews.com –Wall Street Journal
all 59 news articles »

 Mike Flynn – Google News

Mike Flynn – Google News: WSJ: Mueller probes Flynn role in plot to deliver cleric to Turkey – CNN

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CNN
WSJ: Mueller probes Flynn role in plot to deliver cleric to Turkey
CNN
Washington (CNN) Former White House national security adviser Mike Flynn and his son are alleged to have been offered as much as $15 million to forcibly remove from the US a Muslim cleric wanted by Turkey, The Wall Street Journal reports. The Journal …
Special counsel’s interest in Mike Flynn comes into sharper focusMSNBC
Mueller Probing Pre-Election Flynn Meeting with Pro-Russia CongressmanNBCNews.com
Robert Mueller investigating Mike Flynn’s possible role in plot to kidnap Turkish cleric: ReportWashington Examiner
Boing Boing –New York Magazine –NBCNews.com –Wall Street Journal
all 70 news articles »

 Mike Flynn – Google News

Lawfare – Hard National Security Choices: The Lawfare Podcast, Special Edition: A Person of Flynnterest 

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The Wall Street Journal this morning broke a major story: Special Counsel Robert Mueller is investigating President Trump’s former national security advisor, Gen. Michael Flynn, for allegedly plotting with Turkish officials to arrange the extrajudicial removal of Fethullah Gulen from the United States in exchange for a boatload of money. We put together an emergency podcast with Shane Harris, one of the reporters on the story, Ryan Evans of War on the Rocks, and Lawfare’s Benjamin Wittes, Susan Hennessey, Paul Rosenzweig, and Steve Vladeck to cover all the angles. What does it mean? And where does it go from here? Warning: the audio quality is a little rough in spots, recorded conference calls being what they are.

 Lawfare – Hard National Security Choices

There’s nothing creepy about Trump and Putin in matching outfits | Metro News

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Okay so we can all agree that there’s absolutely nothing creepy about Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in matching outfits.

The two leaders met at a summit in Vietnam looking at acting like twins.

Subway workers aren’t allowed to use ‘ladies’ and ‘gentlemen’ any moreThey were spotted shaking hands and waving to the crowd, completely in sync. Amazing.

Also, can we talk about how Putin is wearing a shirt and tie under a shirt? It looks like he came late to a fancy dress party and had to throw something on from the lost property bin.

Trump’s press secretary had said the two hadn’t planned on sitting down for a formal meeting while in Asia because of scheduling conflicts on both sides.

But they bumped into each other and seemed pretty happy about it.

All eyes were on the duo because Russia has cast a huge shadow over Trump’s presidency.

Robert Mueller has a team investigating alleged Russian meddling with the US election last year.

It has already been confirmed the country targeted social media platforms and bombarded them with anti-Hillary propaganda.

Paul Manafort, the former Trump campaign leader, and his associate, Rick Gates, were asked to surrender themselves to federal authorities to face charges over allegedly laundering millions of dollars for work they were doing on behalf of a pro-Kremlin political party in Ukraine.

Manafort has been charged with 12 counts including conspiracy against the United States.

Meanwhile, George Papadopoulos, a former Trump adviser, pleaded guilty to lying to FBI agents.

Trump has since tried to distance himself from the news.

He wrote on Twitter recently: ‘The Fake News is working overtime. As Paul Manaforts lawyer said, there was “no collusion” and events mentioned took place long before he came to the campaign.

‘Few people knew the young, low level volunteer named George, who has already proven to be a liar. Check the DEMS!’

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12:47 PM 11/10/2017 – RECENT POSTS: The Secrets Of The Black Briefcase | Question: Why do we have all these problems with the counter-terrorism and the counterintelligence? Answer: Because sometimes the “F.B.I. Supervisor Wakes to Find a Woman Stole His Gun” – FBI News Review  | The World News and Times

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Директор Федеральной службы безопасности Александр Бортников и специальный представитель Президента по вопросам природоохранной деятельности, экологии и транспорта Сергей Иванов перед началом совещания с постоянными членами Совета Безопасности.
Директор Федеральной службы безопасности Александр Бортников и специальный представитель Президента по вопросам природоохранной деятельности, экологии и транспорта Сергей Иванов перед началом совещания с постоянными членами Совета Безопасности.

11.10.17

M.N. I guess, now we can understand why we have all these problems with the counterterrorism and the counterintelligence. It is easy to see them, and it is easy to exploit these problems, too, for the adversaries. 

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Robert Mueller Is Moving Toward Donald Trump

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5:58 PM 11/8/2017 – Who Leaked the Paradise Papers?

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Who Leaked the Paradise Papers? 

Who Leaked the Paradise Papers? – Google Search

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Who Leaked the Paradise Papers?

Wall Street JournalNov 7, 2017
With the latest leak of international financial records comes evidence … won’t be investigated—the theft of the papers themselves from Appleby, …
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November 8, 2017
The Root Causes of Mass Shootings in the U.S., and the shattering of illusions by Michael Novakhov pic.twitter.com/DMrK7jCrlu
1:42 PM 11/8/2017 The facts on mass shootings in the United States PolitiFact | No Matter How You…

 

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Who Leaked the Paradise Papers?

Is the consortium of journalists fronting for an intelligence agency?

One year since the election of Donald Trump

Trump is not an aberration, but the malignant product of the long-term decay of American capitalism and its two-party system.
Puerto Rican teachers arrested at protest demanding reopening of schools

Puerto Ricos education secretary is following the example of New Orleans, where Hurricane Katrina was used as the opportunity to lay off thousands of teachers and privatize schools.
From Russia With Poison

Were all connected online, but no ones in charge to prevent abuses.
The Trump Doctrine

The presidents approach is: Rip things apart without thought and leave the problem to someone else.
General Mattis, Stand Up to Trump or Hell Drag You Down

Youre the only one who hasnt been infected by ethical cancer.
These are the questions to ask about the Trump-Russia connection

Its clear Moscow wanted to help Trump, but which campaign officials knew this and did they cooperate?

Trumps Asia tour will expose his craving for the approval of despots | Simon Tisdall

Dont expect to hear much about human rights abuses in the Philippines, Vietnam or China. This trip will be more chummy than challengingExpect to hear a lot of talk in the coming days about the existential threat posed by North Koreas nuclear weapons and Chinas unfair trade practices, vis a vis the US. The occasion is Donald Trumps forthcoming 11-day, five-country visit to Asia he leaves Washington on Friday for Japan, South Korea, China, Vietnam and the Philippines. If White House officials have their way, these two America First themes will dominate the trip.

What you will hear considerably less about are the appalling human rights records of Trumps hosts and his abandonment of almost any pretence of upholding western values such as open, democratic governance. Its true his recent Oval Office predecessors were all guilty, to varying degrees, of double standards on rights. But Trumps studied insouciance plumbs new depths. He seems to have no standards at all.

His personal vanity and weakness notwithstanding, Trump as president bears a responsibility to take a stand

Related: UN tells China to release human rights activists and pay them compensation

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Donald Trump, Paul Ryan and the Con Man Caucus

The House tax legislation is the end result of seven years of phoniness.
Trump, Gillespie and the Same Old Party

Trumpism has taken over the G.O.P. because the party was mostly there already.
The Guardian view on elections in the US: cause for (cautious) celebration | Editorial

Sizable victories for the Democrats in a series of races offer cheer after a year of Donald Trump. But the party should not feel too reassuredIt was the boost they needed. The jubilation of Democrats as they celebrated the results of Tuesdays elections owed much to the despair of one year before, when they learned that Donald Trump was on his way to the White House, as well as to the extraordinary events since, which have amplified his unfitness for the presidency and the extent of Russian meddling in his favour. Though his name was not on the ballot this time, he loomed large in voters minds. In Virginia and elsewhere, suburban, college-educated and minority voters surged to the polls to defeat Republicans in an anti-Trump vote.

The Democrats scored hefty victories in gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, despite fears they could lose the latter, and grabbed a swath of seats in Virginias House of Delegates. They swept multiple mayoral races around the country and took control of the Washington state Senate. In Maine, voters approved an expansion of Medicaid under Obamacare.

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How to Reduce Shootings

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Op-Ed Contributor: How You Can Help Prevent Mass Shootings

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November 8, 2017

A look at the best news photos from around the world.

The Root Causes of Mass Shootings in the U.S., and the shattering of illusions by Michael Novakhov pic.twitter.com/DMrK7jCrlu

The Root Causes of Mass Shootings in the U.S., and the shattering of illusions by Michael Novakhov pic.twitter.com/DMrK7jCrlu



Posted bymikenov on Wednesday, November 8th, 2017 5:07pm
1:42 PM 11/8/2017 The facts on mass shootings in the United States PolitiFact | No Matter How You…

1:42 PM 11/8/2017 The facts on mass shootings in the United States PolitiFact | No Matter How You Measure Them, Mass Shooting Deaths Are Up FiveThirtyEight

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7:43 PM 11/7/2017 – “Mass Shootings Don’t Have to Be Inevitable”, just like the New York Times does not have to pontificate all the time. – M.N. 

Spread the Knowledge

“Mass Shootings Don’t Have to Be Inevitable”, just like the New York Times does not have to pontificate all the time. – M.N. 

Mass Shootings Don’t Have to Be Inevitable

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Sound familiar? It does to American citizens who must regularly study these bloody rituals and be left by political leaders to passively anticipate the carnage next time.

In the aftermath of the Texas horror, politicians led by President Trump are trying to steer away from the obvious issue of what to do about the gun industry’s wanton sale of military-style rifles and pistols on the domestic market.

Mr. Trump called the rampage a “mental health problem at the highest level” and not “a guns situation.” This is the cynical evasion devised by the National Rifle Association, which warmly endorsed candidate Trump, who now parrots the diversionary talking point that we must first control for mental illness.

In fact, President Trump signed a law in February revoking an Obama-era regulation that made it more difficult for the mentally ill to purchase guns.

Mr. Trump, who spoke favorably as a candidate of vigilante shootouts for self-defense, also suggested that if a civilian had not briefly exchanged shots with the Texas shooter after the massacre, the casualty toll “would have been much worse.” The implication was that the bloodshed in Texas, which also included more than 20 wounded, actually makes the case for more guns — that the disease of gun violence is also its cure.

This is a fantasy, not a rational argument; it doesn’t bear the slightest scrutiny. As our colleague Nicholas Kristof notes, the United States outstrips the world in both gun ownership per capita and gun deaths per capita. States with higher proportions of gun ownership also have rates of death by guns higher than the national average. Incidents in which victims kill attackers in self-defense are vanishingly few compared with gun homicides, and suicide is by far the leading cause of gun deaths.

From expanded background checks to assault weapons bans, proposals put forward by gun-safety proponents, unlike continually increasing private American arsenals, would do something to thwart mass shootings. The Texas killer was not motivated by racial hatred, as was the killer of the Charleston churchgoers, but by family grievance, underlining the lethal combination of domestic abuse and firearms. Abusers’ access to guns increases the risk of intimate partner homicide as much as fivefold, according to a study in the Annals of Internal Medicine. While federal law prohibits those convicted of domestic violence, as Mr. Kelley was, from buying or possessing firearms, the Air Force failed to add him to a federal database, allowing him to pass necessary background checks. The right law was on the books but enforcement was lax.

And yet so many politicians continue to promote the wares of the gun industry. Two years ago, Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas tweeted “I’m embarrassed: Texas #2 in nation for new gun purchases, behind California. Let’s pick up the pace Texans. @NRA.” On Monday he said the problem was out of human hands.

“We have evil that occurs in this world,” Governor Abbott declared, as if from a pulpit, equating all manner of global terrorist attacks, including the murder of eight last week by a truck driver in Manhattan. When asked how the evil of gun violence can be overcome, he replied “you do that by working with God.” Texas’ attorney general, Ken Paxton, even envisioned “arming some of the parishioners or the congregation so that they can respond” if another massacre occurs.

This is the level of pro-gun argument being offered by Republican leaders and some Democrats. It is made in service to the N.R.A. and the gun industry, not the American public.

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New developments in the Sutherland Springs Texas church shooting – mySanAntonio.com

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mySanAntonio.com
New developments in the Sutherland Springs Texas church shooting
mySanAntonio.com
The gunman Devin Patrick Kelley who killed at least 26 people in a church south of San AntonioSunday died from what authorities believe is a self-inflicted gunshot wound after he crashed his car. He had been chased by armed bystanders. Read more: …

and more »

Devin Patrick Kelley – Google Search

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The Texas gunman escaped from a mental health facility after …

Business Insider4 hours ago
Devin Patrick Kelley, the gunman who killed 26 people on Sunday at a rural Texas church, escaped from a mental health hospital in 2012, …
What We Know About the Texas Baptist Church Gunman
BlogSlate Magazine (blog)Nov 6, 2017

Why are US mass shootings getting more deadly?

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Three of the worst five shootings in modern US history have happened in the last 16 months.

It began – more or less – with 13, the number killed in 1949 in Camden, New Jersey, one of the earliest mass shootings in the US. An army veteran, Howard Unruh, killed his neighbours.

Over the next several decades, the numbers went up: 16 in Austin, Texas, on a campus in 1966, and 21 slain at a McDonald’s in San Ysidro, California, in 1984.

The past month or so have been especially brutal, as two attacks unfolded – in Las Vegas (58 dead) and Sutherland Springs, Texas (26). They followed a June 2016 assault in an Orlando nightclub in which 49 people were killed.

The reasons for this disturbing trend are many and complex, and people across the US and around the world have struggled to understand the violence.

Here analysts discuss some of the factors that may lie behind the grim numbers:

Weapons are more powerful – and shoot faster

The shooters have increasingly been using guns with high-capacity magazines, allowing them to fire off dozens of rounds without having to reload.

“There are more people being shot in a shorter amount of time – with more bullets in them,” explained Harvard School of Public Health’s David Hemenway.

Adam Lanza, who killed 26 people at Sandy Hook Elementary in Newtown, Connecticut, in 2012, and James Holmes, who killed 12 in Aurora, Colorado, that year, both used weapons with this feature. The data’s clear: the number of killings in individual attacks goes up when assault rifles are used.

Researchers have also examined the laws: a ban on semiautomatic assault weapons and large-capacity magazines was passed in 1994. It was lifted in 2004.

Experts said lifting the ban helped to usher in a new era of mass shootings. With these weapons, individuals could shoot faster and for longer periods of time – and consequently were able to kill more people in their attacks.

In addition states have their own laws. After the Sandy Hook massacre, a Connecticut law was passed that banned semiautomatic rifles (or assault weapons, as they’re also known).

Other states loosened their gun laws, however. In Georgia, for example, a law was passed that allowed people to carry weapons in school classrooms, nightclubs and other places. Experts at the Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence wrote that people in states with stricter gun controls tended to see less gun violence.


Assailants choose their sites more carefully

Attacks are now carried out in places with a large number of people – such as a Las Vegas concert venue with 22,000 people. “With that type of crowd, the shooter didn’t even have to aim,” said University of Central Florida’s Jay Corzine.

Most of the people who carry out mass shootings plan the attacks carefully, according to Homicide Studies.

“They’re doing their homework,” Corzine explained. Preparing the groundwork, he said, means the shooters kill more.

The gunman who opened fire at a Batman screening in Aurora, Colorado, in 2012 “thought a movie theatre would lead to higher fatalities”, said the University of Alabama’s Adam Lankford.


The shooters are inspired by media accounts

Coverage of mass shootings – like the assaults themselves – have exploded in recent years. Shooters post on social media before the attacks and sometimes while the assaults are underway.

Media organisations create live pages and provide 24/7 coverage of an assault. In addition journalists often focus on the killers, providing details about their lives and unintentionally contributing to a glorification of these individuals.

Yet overall, say experts, the stories did not cause an increase in the number of deaths in the assaults. “I’ve seen media accounts of mass shootings for the past 25 years, and the uptick of high casualties has been pretty recent,” said Corzine. Still the coverage gives people ideas.

“Mass shootings are contagious,” said Gary Slutkin, founder of a Chicago-based organisation, Cure Violence. “People see what other people do, and they follow that.”


The shooters compete with each other

Dylan Klebold, one of the attackers at Columbine High School in Littleton, Colorado, in 1999, described their goal: “the most deaths in US history…we’re hoping.”

As Lankford explained: “This really is a race for notoriety – to be bigger and better than the attackers who came before you.”

Becoming famous as a mass shooter may seem like a sick glory. Yet it holds an allure for some. “It’s, ‘Well, yeah…,'” Slutkin said, describing how these individuals consider the possibility of fame and spend little time contemplating the likelihood of their own grisly fate: “It isn’t all the way thought through.”

“We all want to be known after we’re dead,” he explained.

“It shows how strong that circuit is.”

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Why are US mass shootings getting more deadly? – BBC News

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BBC News
Why are US mass shootings getting more deadly?
BBC News
Most of the people who carry out mass shootings plan the attacks carefully, according to Homicide Studies. “They’re doing their homework,” Corzine explained. Preparing the groundwork, he said, means the shooters kill more. The gunman who opened fire at …
Another opportunity to do nothing about gun violence in AmericaLos Angeles Times
Many Mass Shooters Have A History Of Domestic ViolenceBuzzFeed News
FROM THE EDITORIAL BOARD: It’s time to stop doing nothing about gunsUtahstatesman
ChristianityToday.com –Department of Justice –EverytownResearch.org
all 76 news articles »

AR-15 style rifles are common among mass shootings – WBIR-TV

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WBIR-TV
AR-15 style rifles are common among mass shootings
WBIR-TV
AR-15 style rifles have become the weapon of choice in recent mass shootings, including the Texas church shooting Sunday, the Orlando nightclub last year and Sandy Hook Elementary School in 2012. The manufacture of rifles more than doubled in the last …

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Mass shootings in America: 4 essential reads – WTOP

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Mass shootings in America: 4 essential reads
WTOP
For injury prevention, it is far more effective and long-lasting to change the environment by changing modifiable policies and norms than to try to change the way children behave.” A mass shooting often brings out partisan politics. Those who want to 

Texas authorities: We won’t mention shooter’s name again – Washington Post

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Washington Post
Texas authorities: We won’t mention shooter’s name again
Washington Post
The shooter’s name went unspoken at a news conference on the killings at a church in Sutherland Springs, Texas, and authorities there said they intend to keep refraining from saying it. “We do not want to glorify him and what he has done,” Texas 

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Texas authorities: We won’t mention shooter’s name again – Boston Herald

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Boston Herald
Texas authorities: We won’t mention shooter’s name again
Boston Herald
Zeynep Tufekci, a professor at the University of North Carolina who studies the social effects of technology, said evidence shows that future mass shooters were carefully watching coverage of the most recent attacks. She has repeatedly urged — both 

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What Explains US Mass Shootings? International Comparisons Suggest an Answer – New York Times

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New York Times
What Explains US Mass Shootings? International Comparisons Suggest an Answer
New York Times
If mental health made the difference, then data would show that Americans have more mental health problems than do people in other countries with fewer mass shootings. But the mental health care spending rate in the United States, the number of mental …
Link seen between domestic violence and mass killingsCBS News
Mass Shooting in Texas and False Arguments Against Gun ControlThe New Yorker
Trump wrong to blame mass killings on mental illness rather than guns, experts saySan Francisco Chronicle
Axios –Xinhua –Washington Post
all 483 news articles »

After the Texas church shooting, will the military fix how it reports crime? – PBS NewsHour

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PBS NewsHour
After the Texas church shooting, will the military fix how it reports crime?
PBS NewsHour
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott had an urgent question Monday about Devin Patrick Kelley, the former U.S. Air Force airman who is accused of killing 26 people worshipping at a church service yesterday: How was it that Kelley, convicted of domestic violence and …

and more »

NYT Shows How Not to Analyze Mass-Shooting Data

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Some colleagues sent me the New York Times article “What Explains U.S. Mass Shootings? International Comparisons Suggest an Answer” today. My jaw just about hit the floor when I saw the chart that appears at the top of the piece, above everything else except the title and byline:

Uh, notice a problem there, guys? You can’t compare across countries without adjusting for population. A country with more people, all else equal, will have both more guns and more mass shootings, driving a false correlation between the two.

They get to the adjusted data about halfway through the piece. It’s true that the U.S. and Yemen are the countries with the most guns and the most shooters — and that is something that could, plausibly, suggest that easy access to guns increases mass shootings. But also worth noting is that there’s no pattern visible for the entire rest of the data set. Gun ownership varies from basically nonexistent to above 30 guns per 100 people, yet these variations don’t obviously correspond to variations in mass shootings.

There are a few other issues with the piece worth pointing out, in no particular order:

 Their mass-shooting numbers and much of their analysis — including a claim that gun ownership correlates with mass shootings even after the U.S. is excluded and overall homicide rates are taken into account — come from the researcher Adam Lankford, who has refused to share information about his analysis with media outlets likely to criticize him.

 In one paragraph, they claim that more gun ownership means more “gun murders,” but two of the four sources they link document gun deaths including suicide.

 We shouldn’t care about “gun murders” or “mass shootings”; we should care about murders in general and mass killings in general, regardless of how they’re accomplished. (Up to a point it’s essentially tautological to claim that more guns translates to more problems with guns, because a society with no guns by definition cannot have any problems with them.) As I’ve noted numerous times before, there is no simple, consistent correlation between gun ownership and murder or homicide rates in general, either among developed countries or among U.S. states. More sophisticated studies face a variety of serious methodological obstacles — I don’t find any of them that compelling — and have reached varying conclusions. The research on mass shootings in particular is in an even more primitive state.

 They claim that the U.S. has more lethal crime than other developed countries but not more crime in general, and argue that guns are the difference. Even if we take the initial claim at face value, in blaming guns we encounter the problem that, as Steven Pinker once put it, “If you subtract out all the gun homicides in the United States and you just look at the homicides committed with, say ropes, candlesticks, and daggers, we still kill people at a higher rate.” I went through various reasons for our high rate of lethal violence here.

I wouldn’t purport to know for a fact that gun ownership doesn’t lead to higher homicide or mass-shooting rates, but the effects are far more complicated and subtle than gun controllers want us to believe.

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4:28 PM 11/7/2017 – The Root Causes of Mass Shootings in the U.S., in my opinion – M.N. | NYT Shows How Not to Analyze Mass-Shooting Data – National Review | The Web World Times – News and Opinions Review

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Image result for three monkeys see no evil

4:28 PM 11/7/2017 – The Root Causes of Mass Shootings in the U.S.: In my opinion:

If you admit as the hypothetical explanatory option the  hostile special intelligence operation nature of the mass killings, and it is impossible not to consider this scenario as an, if not the (in majority of cases) explanation, then all the sociological and the statistical studies become irrelevant, just as the gun ownership explanatory theory, which is indeed false, in my opinion. This latter factor might be contributing but not the root cause, and not the main causal factor in the modern-day U.S. culture. 

Michael Novakhov 

11.7.17 

P.S.: But the good thing is that we started to ask these questions and started to look for the answers. We should not let the conceptual stereotypes to cloud our judgment. One of such stereotypes, regarding “Al Qaeda”, started to crumble before our eyes: “21 Years of War with Al  Qaeda?” “ISIS”, probably is next. 

It looks like the beginning of the end of the historical denial. So much for the powers of the very plausible self-deception: “I do not see it, because I do not want to see it”, just like the good old three monkeys. 

Links: 

________________________________

What Explains U.S. Mass Shootings? International Comparisons Suggest an Answer

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Worldwide, Mr. Lankford found, a country’s rate of gun ownership correlated with the odds it would experience a mass shooting. This relationship held even when he excluded the United States, indicating that it could not be explained by some other factor particular to his home country. And it held when he controlled for homicide rates, suggesting that mass shootings were better explained by a society’s access to guns than by its baseline level of violence.

Contributing Op-Ed Writer: Sutherland Springs Only Happens to Be in Texas

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There is nothing particularly Lone Star State-ish about a mass killing these days. Ask New York, or Las Vegas.

 ___________________________________

 

Mass Shootings News Review

Current News, Selected Articles, Reviews, Analysis, Investigations, Opinions

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NYT Shows How Not to Analyze Mass-Shooting Data – National Review

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National Review
NYT Shows How Not to Analyze Mass-Shooting Data
National Review
Some colleagues sent me the New York Times article “What Explains U.S. Mass Shootings? International Comparisons Suggest an Answer” today. My jaw just about hit the floor when I saw the chart that appears at the top of the piece, above everything else …
Where the guns used in Chicago actually came fromWashington Post

all 58 news articles »

A mass shooter’s name is part of the story; concealing it is silly and self-important – Los Angeles Times

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Los Angeles Times
A mass shooter’s name is part of the story; concealing it is silly and self-important
Los Angeles Times
As anyone who has taken a high school journalism class knows, one of the 5 Ws that reporters should be careful to include in the first paragraph of a news story is “who.” Usually that means providing the name of the newsmaker, whether his actions are …

three monkeys see no evil – Google Search

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Image result for three monkeys see no evil

The Next Phase in the War on Terror 

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Last week, in the deadliest terrorist attack in New York City since 9/11, Sayfullo Saipov turned a nearly mile-long stretch of bike path along Manhattan’s West Side Highway into a killing ground. The attack reflects a terrorism threat that is morphing from the complex, externally directed attack carried out by a network that we saw on 9/11 to violent individuals, inspired online by ISIS and other radical jihadist groups. We built an architecture to prevent another 9/11, but we have a long way to go when it comes to tackling this latest phase of terrorism.

The good news is that communities have proven resilient when attacked. The bad news is that this week—with calls for “extreme vetting” and denigration of our criminal justice system as a tool against terror—we saw dangerous backsliding instead of a renewed focus on the work needed for the next phase in the war on terror.

How should we respond to this latest terror act on our soil? Rather than demagoguing on immigration, launching divisive political attacks, or disparaging our criminal justice system, we should focus on what works. Effectiveness should be our lodestar. Russia is not the only one who wants to weaken the United States by sowing division in our country—the terrorists want to do so as well. We shouldn’t let them.

When tragedy and terror strike we must deliver swift and certain justice consistent with the rule of law. While it appears cooler heads have prevailed to reverse the President’s initial impulse to send the New York attacker to Guantanamo (an unprecedented and legally dubious move), the fact that we found ourselves having the debate yet again about “war” vs. “law enforcement” in the terror fight prompted disturbing déjà vu. Dedicated professionals across two administrations worked hard to ensure that this country can apply all tools—military, intelligence, law enforcement, diplomacy, financial sanctions—to disrupt threats and hold terrorists accountable. For terrorists caught on U.S. soil, we have relied on a criminal justice system that is the envy of the world not only because it is the hallmark of our rule of law society but also because it gets results.

The record is clear when it comes to generating intelligence, securing convictions and safely holding terrorists. The more than one million federal, state, and local law enforcement officers who work in that system put their lives on the line to keep us safe are anything but a “laughing stock.” To the contrary, they include more than 30,000 FBI agents, intelligence analysts and other professionals who I was proud to call colleagues when I served as Chief of Staff to then FBI-Director Robert S. Mueller. This nation is also served everyday by dedicated federal prosecutors who are no “joke.” That includes those in the Southern District of New York who, true to their tradition of independence, tuned out the political talk and moved swiftly to charge the New York attacker. It was precisely the need for intelligence-driven criminal prosecutions of terrorists and spies that led to the creation of the Justice Department’s National Security Division which I was privileged to lead during the Obama Administration. These elements of our post 9/11 architecture—solidified over both Republican and Democratic Administrations—have brought justice in hundreds of terrorist-related cases since 9/11.

Contrast that approach with the (hopefully short-lived) impulse to send Saipov to Guantanamo on the theory that we’re at war (we are) and he’s an enemy (he is) and enemies don’t get lawyers (not quite). The Supreme Court has determined that Guantanamo Bay, where a detainee has the right to challenge his detention, is not lawyer-free zone. And while a bipartisan effort reformed military commissions in 2009 to maintain a prosecution tool for terrorists caught on a hot battlefield, they have proven anything but swift and certain. In 15 years, the military commissions have delivered just eight convictions or guilty pleas and several of those have been overturned or invalidated. The 9/11 and U.S.S. Cole bombing victims and their families are still waiting for justice today.

Justice would not be served by sending Saipov to Guantanamo. Nor would it serve the goal of generating intelligence and understanding how Saipov came to plow down pedestrians on Halloween afternoon. Saipov reportedly has talked to FBI agents and told them that he consumed ISIS propaganda prior to his attack. Understanding more about how and when he became radicalized is critical to stopping future attacks. But the surest way to keep that from happening would be to interrupt the FBI interrogation and ship Saipov to Guantanamo.

It is dangerous pre-9/11 thinking to suggest that the FBI can’t act in this case—as it has in so many others since 9/11—to obtain intelligence from a terrorist in custody. In fact, the FBI can immediately question terrorists—without giving Miranda warnings—to identify other threats and plots. In 2011 when Congress was considering a mandatory military custody law for terrorist captures here or abroad, the FBI was right to argue that such a mandate would interrupt their intelligence gathering process by turning a terrorist over to the military where he could challenge his military detention with the benefit of a lawyer. Sure enough, in case after case where the FBI has moved quickly to gather intelligence and then bring a prosecution in our courts, terrorists have pled guilty or received lengthy sentences in the highest security Federal prisons. And importantly the FBI has been able to generate intelligence that led to the capture of other terrorists (Just ask Christmas Day bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab). We need this intelligence now more than ever in order to understand how Saipov was radicalized and how someone might have intervened in time to stop him.

It appears that Saipov did not slip through the vetting system, but instead may fall into the more-common category that DHS described in March of this year when it concluded that most foreign born, US-based terrorists are radicalized after they arrive. At the moment, we have a rare opportunity, having taken Saipov into custody alive. As NYPD Deputy Commissioner John Miller said, Saipov followed the ISIS playbook “to a tee” by weaponizing a vehicle and leaving a note to brag about it. This breed of terrorist poses a significant challenge to law enforcement and we should strive to learn as much as we can about Saipov’s path to radicalization.

In response to this challenge, we should reject impulsive responses in favor of what works. Recycling campaign chants of “extreme vetting” and pulling the plug on the Diversity Visa Program which reportedly allowed Saipov entry in 2010 is a distraction; he reportedly was radicalized years after he entered the United States. To be clear, we should support strong and thorough vetting for anyone who wants to enjoy the rights and benefits of this country. Such vetting, regardless of specific program, should be refined based on threat intelligence. This is why following the Paris attacks in 2015, the DHS strengthened the visa waiver program to respond to the threat from foreign fighter returnees who may have traveled to join ISIS in Syria and Iraq but held European passports eligible for visa-free travel to the United States. The future of the Diversity Visa Program might be a reasonable topic for debate, but based on what we know now is in no way related to the tragedy on the Westside Highway.

Rather than creating distractions and issuing blanket travel bans, our vetting process should respond to the actual threats we face. We should be building trust in communities we need to identify future threats, not alienating and marginalizing them. Let’s focus on working with social media companies to stop abuse of their platforms. Let’s work to strengthen relationships with our international security partners.

Sixteen years after 9/11 we face a different type of threat. In response, we should emulate the best we’ve seen from this country. We should model resilience and support, and we should reject politics in favor of pragmatism. We must summon the best in our communities, in our government and politics, and rely on that which makes us different from every other country in the world: the rule of law and our justice system. Anything less allows terrorists to divide us.

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21 Years of War with Al Qaeda? 

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Has the United States been at war with al-Qaeda for 21 years? During the most recent 9/11 military commission hearing at Guantanamo Bay, the prosecution finally articulated its view of when the U.S. and al-Qaeda entered into an armed conflict. According to the prosecution, that putative armed conflict began more than 21 years ago, on August 23, 1996, the day Osama bin Laden, the founder of the terrorist group, published a fatwa calling for attacks on Americans. The government characterized this fatwa as a declaration of war:

We do believe that the ’96 document written by [Osama] bin Laden, who was the head of al-Qaeda at the time he wrote it, is a declaration of war.

The prosecution apparently staked out this astonishing position, at odds with history, law, and the U.S. government’s interests outside of the 9/11 military commission, to satisfy its short-term litigation goal of preserving the military commission’s personal jurisdiction over the 9/11 defendants.

The Military Commission Act grants military commissions personal jurisdiction over “alien unprivileged belligerents.” The Act defines those as individuals who are not U.S. citizens, who are not privileged belligerents, and who either (1) engaged in hostilities against the United States or its coalition partners; (2) purposefully and materially supported hostilities against the United States or its coalition partners; or (3) were a part of al-Qaeda at the time of the alleged offense.  All three categories of individual over whom a military commission may have personal jurisdiction must have some connection to hostilities—which the MCA defines as “any conflict subject to the laws of war.”  (The timing element of the third category implicates hostilities through §950p(c), which limits offenses triable by military commission to those “committed in the context of or associated with hostilities.”)  Hostilities, in turn, are defined as any conflict subject to the laws of war.  Thus, the military commission has personal jurisdiction over the 9/11 defendants only if they were connected to an armed conflict between the U.S. and al-Qaeda prior to September 11, 2001.

Since May 2017, the 9/11 military commission is working its way towards a pre-trial, evidentiary hearing on personal jurisdiction.  It was in the context of a preliminary hearing addressing what if any witnesses should provide testimony as to personal jurisdiction that Judge Pohl pressed the prosecution for a specific date on which the armed conflict with al-Qaeda began.  The government’s response—August 23, 1996—was intended to ensure that the 9/11 military commission could proceed.  Unfortunately, that position carries with it significant ramifications implicating state sovereignty—the oldest rule in international law—and fundamental applications and consequences of the law of armed conflict.

It is axiomatic that only states may bring about the legal state of war or, in modern terms, armed conflict, through an act of speech. Historically, the law of war applied to situations of declared war between states.  When the 1949 Geneva Conventions established the modern framework for armed conflict that rests primarily on objective indicators of conflict rather than political declarations or determinations, the drafters retained the notion of declared war between states—but only for conflicts between states.  Thus, international armed conflicts—armed conflicts between two or more states—may arise upon a declaration of war alone or through the use of armed force between two states.  In contrast, non-international armed conflicts——armed conflicts between states and non-state actors (or among non-state actors)—only exist when non-state actors are sufficiently organized and violence between the parties is sufficiently intense. Whereas Common Article 2, which invokes the full panoply of the Geneva Conventions, applies only to interstate war and may be triggered merely by a declaration of war, Common Article 3 applies alone in the event of “an armed conflict not of an international character.” The drafters of the Geneva Conventions simply made no provision for a  non-international armed conflict to be triggered by means of a declaration of war.

In fact, the drafters of the Geneva Conventions intentionally excluded a declared-war trigger for non-international armed conflict. Common Article 3 reflects a careful balance: recognizing that conflicts between states and non-state actors may rise to a level of violence comparable to that of interstate armed conflict, while also accommodating states’ desire to minimize international legal regulation intruding on their internal affairs. This bargain reflects states’ aversion to conferring the sort of legitimacy or legal status on non-state actors that could challenge states’ sovereignty, including by implicitly recognizing their belligerent or insurgent status.

Thus, the final clause of Common Article 3 includes a disclaimer: “The application of the preceding provisions [Common Article 3] shall not affect the legal status of the Parties to the conflict.” Jean Pictet’s authoritative Commentary on the Geneva Conventions specifically attributes the provision’s origin to a desire to “prevent the [non-state] party from basing a claim for recognition as a regular Government on the respect it had shown for the Convention,” as required in the original Convention draft. His explanation of Common Article 3 attributes much of its evolution from its initial proposal to its final form to states’ concerns about legitimizing criminal entities.

“There was also a risk of common or ordinary criminals being encouraged to give themselves a semblance of organization as a pretext for claiming the benefit of the Conventions, representing their crimes as ‘acts of war’ in order to escape punishment for them. A party of rebels, however small, would be entitled under the Conventions to ask for the assistance and intervention of a Protecting Power. Moreover, it was asked, would not the de jure Government be compelled to release the captured rebels as soon as the troubles were over, since the application of the Convention would place them on the same footing as prisoners of war?”

Pictet concluded that without the disclaimer, Common Article 3 would not have been adopted. “It meets the fear—always the same one—that the application of the Convention, even to a very limited extent . . . may confer belligerent status, and consequently increased authority, upon the adverse party.”

The same concerns over extending legitimacy to non-state actors persists today.  Indeed, the United States has never ratified Additional Protocol I precisely because it had the potential to “give recognition and protection to terrorist groups” by extending the law pertaining to international armed conflicts to certain non-international armed conflicts. In transmitting his decision not to seek ratification of Additional Protocol I, President Ronald Reagan explained to the U.S. Senate that the application of the full panoply of international humanitarian law to armed non-state actors who do not otherwise comply with the law of armed conflict could legitimate the aims and the practices of terrorist organizations.

Nevertheless, solely in order to extend the military commissions’ jurisdiction over the 9/11 defendants, the government has chosen to legitimize bin Laden and al-Qaeda by placing them on the same legal plane as states, stating last week that:

. . . [O]ur position has always been under international law, when you have international armed conflicts, a declaration of war is sufficient alone [to trigger the law of armed conflict].

. . . .

If we were to declare war on another country today, the law of war would apply from the second we declared war. And that’s really what we are talking about. We are talking about when did the hostilities begin so we know when the law of war took over. And clearly our position has always been that we believe it began in 1996 with [Osama] bin Laden’s declaration . . . .

The military commission prosecution evidently believes that, as a matter of law, an individual or a non-state actor may, through its speech alone, unilaterally bring about a legal state of armed conflict. If the military commission were to credit the prosecution’s position, it would preserve the military commission’s jurisdiction and save the prosecution the trouble and difficulty of demonstrating the existence of a non-international armed conflict prior to 9/11. Unfortunately, the consequences of that inexplicable position are not limited to whether the 9/11 military commission may go forward.

According bin Laden’s 1996 fatwa the legal effect of a declaration of war implies that in 1996 al-Qaeda had the characteristics of a state actor. International law normally limits statehood only to those entities that are able to exert effective control over a definite territory and population, engage in international relations, and garner recognition. But none of this was true of al-Qaeda in 1996. Three months before issuing his fatwa, bin Laden and al-Qaeda were evicted from Sudan and dispossessed of their enterprises there. At the time, al-Qaeda boasted as few as several dozen members. And, seven months later, the Taliban—who by then exerted actual effective control over the territory where bin Laden resided—forced bin Laden to relocate to Kandahar from Nangarhar, where he originally established himself in Afghanistan after fleeing Sudan.

The prosecution’s position imbuing al-Qaeda with state-like powers undermine U.S. interests outside of this military commission in at least five ways.  First, it undermines the lawfulness and legitimacy of the U.S. war of self-defense against Afghanistan in the aftermath of 9/11.  If al-Qaeda were a state or something akin to a state in 1996, then by implication Afghanistan and the Taliban did not so much host al-Qaeda as surround it, as if it were an enclaved state. Under the prosecution’s view, therefore, the Taliban could not be responsible for surrendering bin Laden following the 9/11 attacks, and the United States’ ultimatum to hand him over would have been unreasonable: how could a de facto government with only partial control of its own territory be responsible for curtailing the actions of an enclaved sovereign? Consequently, if the prosecution were right that al-Qaeda was the equivalent of a state actor, the invasion of Afghanistan could be viewed as a misdirected and illegal aggressive war.

Second, the prosecution’s position necessarily suggests that the armed conflict between al-Qaeda and the United States is an international armed conflict—as opposed to a non-international armed conflict—invoking the full panoply of the laws of war.  This position also means that al-Qaeda members were the regular armed forces of a state, meaning that members of al-Qaeda could make a colorable claim to combatant immunity and prisoner-of-war (POW) status. At the very least, all of those currently detained and accused of prior membership in al-Qaeda should have been treated as POWs until they received an Article 5 hearing. (Ammar al Baluchi, for example, has requested, but never received, an Article 5 hearing.) The prosecution’s position in the 9/11 case legitimizes attacks by members of al-Qaeda on U.S. soldiers and military infrastructure, narrowing the scope of criminality associated with al-Qaeda attacks.  For example, according to the prosecution’s view, the attack on the U.S.S. Cole would remain perfidious but the sailors killed and the vessel targeted would be lawful military targets—and the charge of terrorism would be a mere restatement of the object of war: violence intended to coerce a political result.

Third, if the prosecution position prevailed, al-Qaeda would have enjoyed belligerent rights and the benefit of the laws of neutrality. Neutrality of non-belligerents is automatically triggered by the existence of a state of war between belligerents. Neutrals must remain neutral—that is they must not assist one belligerent party against the other. But belligerents must also refrain from conducting hostilities on the territory of neutral states, a fundamental protection for neutrals and against the spread of war. For example, the application of neutrality as a result of the prosecution’s position would mean that the U.S. violated Sudan’s neutrality along with its sovereignty by bombing the al-Shifa pharmaceutical facility in Khartoum in 1998.

Moreover, and outside of the immediate concerns relating to al-Qaeda, the government’s position suggests that declarations of war by non-state actors are a fast-track to sovereignty. The consequences of this implication may be far reaching. There are numerous entities that have substantially stronger claims to statehood than did al-Qaeda in 1996, but that remain outsiders in the international system. Would entities like Somaliland, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Abkhazia, and others finally gain admittance to the international system by declaring war on a neighbor or a far-off foe unlikely to take notice?

Finally, the government’s position leaves unsettled how to differentiate non-state declarations of war that have legal effect from those that do not. The U.S. has been the target of numerous supposed declarations of war by violent non-state actors to which it accorded no legal effect. For example, the United States treated neither the Symbionese National Liberation Army nor the Weathermen as enemy belligerents. Similarly, why give bin Laden’s August 1996 fatwa the legal weight of a declaration of war but not al Qaeda’s earlier 1992 fatwa that likewise called for attacks on U.S. forces in Saudi Arabia?

The only conclusion that can be drawn from the prosecution’s astounding position that bin Laden’s fatwa actually caused a legal state of war with the U.S. is that the government is willing to contort the law of armed conflict to suit its short-term litigation goals. Unfortunately, its single-minded and short-sighted effort to patch up the broken 9/11 military commission is simply making wreckage of law and history—and proving the old adage that hard cases make bad law.

The opinions and views expressed are those of the author alone. They do not represent the views of the US Department of Defense or the US Government. 

Image: Getty Read on Just Security »

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Contributing Op-Ed Writer: Sutherland Springs Only Happens to Be in Texas 

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There is nothing particularly Lone Star State-ish about a mass killing these days. Ask New York, or Las Vegas.

What Explains U.S. Mass Shootings? International Comparisons Suggest an Answer

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Worldwide, Mr. Lankford found, a country’s rate of gun ownership correlated with the odds it would experience a mass shooting. This relationship held even when he excluded the United States, indicating that it could not be explained by some other factor particular to his home country. And it held when he controlled for homicide rates, suggesting that mass shootings were better explained by a society’s access to guns than by its baseline level of violence.

What Doesn’t: Crime, Race or Mental Health

If mental health made the difference, then data would show that Americans have more mental health problems than do people in other countries with fewer mass shootings. But the mental health care spending rate in the United States, the number of mental health professionals per capita and the rate of severe mental disorders are all in line with those of other wealthy countries.

A 2015 study estimated that only 4 percent of American gun deaths could be attributed to mental health issues. And Mr. Lankford, in an email, said countries with high suicide rates tended to have low rates of mass shootings — the opposite of what you would expect if mental health problems correlated with mass shootings.

Whether a population plays more or fewer video games also appears to have no impact. Americans are no more likely to play video games than people in any other developed country.

Racial diversity or other factors associated with social cohesion also show little correlation with gun deaths. Among European countries, there is little association between immigration or other diversity metrics and the rates of gun murders or mass shootings.

A Violent Country

America’s gun homicide rate was 33 per million people in 2009, far exceeding the average among developed countries. In Canada and Britain, it was 5 per million and 0.7 per million, respectively, which also corresponds with differences in gun ownership.

Americans sometimes see this as an expression of deeper problems with crime, a notion ingrained, in part, by a series of films portraying urban gang violence in the early 1990s. But the United States is not actually more prone to crime than other developed countries, according to a landmark 1999 study by Franklin E. Zimring and Gordon Hawkins of the University of California, Berkeley.

Rather, they found, in data that has since been repeatedly confirmed, that American crime is simply more lethal. A New Yorker is just as likely to be robbed as a Londoner, for instance, but the New Yorker is 54 times more likely to be killed in the process.

They concluded that the discrepancy, like so many other anomalies of American violence, came down to guns.

More gun ownership corresponds with more gun murders across virtually every axis: among developed countries, among American states, among American towns and cities and when controlling for crime rates. And gun control legislation tends to reduce gun murders, according to a recent analysis of 130 studies from 10 countries.

This suggests that the guns themselves cause the violence.

Mass Shootings Happen Everywhere

Skeptics of gun control sometimes point to a 2016 study. From 2000 and 2014, it found, the United States death rate by mass shooting was 1.5 per one million people. The rate was 1.7 in Switzerland and 3.4 in Finland, suggesting American mass shootings were not actually so common.

But the same study found that the United States had 133 mass shootings. Finland had only two, which killed 18 people, and Switzerland had one, which killed 14. In short, isolated incidents. So while mass shootings can happen anywhere, they are only a matter of routine in the United States.

As with any crime, the underlying risk is impossible to fully erase. Any individual can snap or become entranced by a violent ideology. What is different is the likelihood that this will lead to mass murder.

In China, about a dozen seemingly random attacks on schoolchildren killed 25 people between 2010 and 2012. Most used knives; none used a gun.

By contrast, in this same window, the United States experienced five of its deadliest mass shootings, which killed 78 people. Scaled by population, the American attacks were 12 times as deadly.

Beyond the Statistics

In 2013, American gun-related deaths included 21,175 suicides, 11,208 homicides and 505 deaths caused by an accidental discharge. That same year in Japan, a country with one-third America’s population, guns were involved in only 13 deaths.

This means an American is about 300 times more likely to die by gun homicide or accident than a Japanese person. America’s gun ownership rate is 150 times as high as Japan’s. That gap between 150 and 300 shows that gun ownership statistics alone do not explain what makes America different.

The United States also has some of the world’s weakest controls over who may buy a gun and what sorts of guns may be owned.

Switzerland has the second-highest gun ownership rate of any developed country, about half that of the United States. Its gun homicide rate in 2004 was 7.7 per million people — unusually high, in keeping with the relationship between gun ownership and murders, but still a fraction of the rate in the United States.

Swiss gun laws are more stringent, setting a higher bar for securing and keeping a license, for selling guns and for the types of guns that can be owned. Such laws reflect more than just tighter restrictions. They imply a different way of thinking about guns, as something that citizens must affirmatively earn the right to own.

The Difference Is Culture

The United States is one of only three countries, along with Mexico and Guatemala, that begin with the opposite assumption: that people have an inherent right to own guns.

The main reason American regulation of gun ownership is so weak may be the fact that the trade-offs are simply given a different weight in the United States than they are anywhere else.

After Britain had a mass shooting in 1987, the country instituted strict gun control laws. So did Australia after a 1996 incident. But the United States has repeatedly faced the same calculus and determined that relatively unregulated gun ownership is worth the cost to society.

That choice, more than any statistic or regulation, is what most sets the United States apart.

“In retrospect Sandy Hook marked the end of the US gun control debate,” Dan Hodges, a British journalist, wrote in a post on Twitter two years ago, referring to the 2012 attack that killed 20 young students at an elementary school in Connecticut. “Once America decided killing children was bearable, it was over.”

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Root causes of Mass Shootings in the U.S. – Google Search

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Story image for Root causes of Mass Shootings in the U.S. from Pacific Standard

The Sad, Lonely Men Behind America’s Mass Shootings

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The Sad, Lonely Men Behind America’s Mass Shootings … 59 people in Las Vegas in what was the worst mass shooting in modern American history, … Is toxic masculinity really the root cause of our mass shooting epidemic?
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Church Times

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National Review

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Malaysian Christian News
Story image for Root causes of Mass Shootings in the U.S. from New York Times

No, Mr. President, It Is ‘a Guns Situation’

New York TimesNov 6, 2017
In little more than a month, we have had two cases of mass murder … The money could be raised by a modest tax on all guns owned in the United States. … Once more we are told that the root cause is a mentally ill person.
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It’s not Muslims, Mexicans or immigrants making the US unsafe – it’s …

The Independent (blog)Nov 6, 2017
Not only are most adult mass shooters in the US men, but most school shooters are boys too. … But it’s also not the root of the cause. … So what makes some people commit mass shootings – what is the common factor that …
Story image for Root causes of Mass Shootings in the U.S. from Mic

Domestic violence is a link among most mass shooters — but …

MicNov 6, 2017
Many recent mass killings have been committed by men with histories of … Acts of domestic violence are at the root of a majority of mass shootings: Everytown … The shooter in the attack had a history of domestic violence. …. really addressing what the root causes are, whether that be studies, whether that …

Thoughts About Mass Murder

Power Line (blog)17 hours ago
Moreover, the root cause of murder isn’t firearms or cars. It is evil. Countries where there are vastly fewer firearms than in the U.S. still have …
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Why High-Profile Events Like Mass Shootings Often Don’t Lead To …

FiveThirtyEightOct 18, 2017
But in the U.S., gun control policy has often appeared impossible to pass at the … This idea describes the debate after mass shootings pretty well; … health problems or declining public morals, as the root cause of the problem.
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<a href=”http://TAPinto.net” rel=”nofollow”>TAPinto.net</a>Oct 18, 2017

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Mass Shootings in the U.S. – Google Search

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What Explains US Mass Shootings? International Comparisons …

New York Times7 hours ago
From 1966 to 2012, 31 percent of the gunmen in mass shootings worldwide were American, according to a 2015 study by Adam Lankford, …
Columbine massacre no longer among 10 deadliest mass shootings …
<a href=”http://Chron.com” rel=”nofollow”>Chron.com</a>18 hours ago
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George Papadopoulos – Google Search

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Week after bombshell, George Papadopoulos largely remains a …

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This image posted on his Linkedin profile shows George Papadopoulos posing on a street of London. A week after the Trump campaign …
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Joan Sutherland – Google Search

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Prima Donna from Point Piper: Joan Sutherland interview – archive …

The GuardianOct 9, 2017
Dame Joan Sutherland during rehearsals for a production of Bellini’s I Puritani, conducted by her husband Richard Bonynge, March 1964.
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When one thinks of “Lucia” at the Royal Opera House, it is impossible to disassociate the opera from one major name – Joan Sutherland.
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The Washington National Opera Tries Valiantly to Make Alcina An …

Washington City Paper (blog)52 minutes ago
If not for a particularly notable Venice run starring Joan Sutherland in the 1960s, it might have mercifully faded into obscurity. To be fair, George …
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sutherland opera – Google Search

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Joan Sutherland “Casta diva” from “Norma” – YouTube

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Sutherland Springs Only Happens to Be in Texas

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Lessons from a century of communism

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What Russian Revolution? – The New York Times

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Most countries have an unpredictable future; Russia has an unpredictable past. That old chestnut has cropped up often this year as the Kremlin has struggled to find an appropriate official way to mark the 100th anniversary of the 1917 Russian Revolution.

Manipulating history for political ends is not unusual — see the Trump administration and the Civil War. But in Russia, invoking history has long been a way of proclaiming political or ideological affiliation. The “Great October Socialist Revolution” was the founding myth of the Soviet Union; Nov. 7 (Oct. 25 on the old Russian calendar), the date of the uprising that brought the Bolsheviks to power, was the national holiday, on which tanks, missiles and high-stepping soldiers swept through Red Square.

The history of the revolution — and of the czarist past, and for that matter of the entire world — was written to fit the myth of Soviet Russia as the vanguard of civilization, and woe to those who tampered with the official version. Unless they were the guardians of the official version, to whom it fell now and again to rewrite and update that history — like when Stalin went abruptly from demigod to footnote.

The end of the Soviet Union in 1990 set history adrift. The collapse of a totalitarian dictatorship that had overthrown an absolute monarchy forced Russians to confront a painful task of choosing what to glorify, what to condemn, and what to gloss over. Impassioned debates over what role of “liberalism,” “democracy” or “elections” might have had a century ago are really about today.

Those who pine for a powerful state, President Vladimir Putin among them, have come to blame Lenin for the territorial costs he incurred for quitting the war with Germany and to credit Stalin with putting it together again (until it was dismantled anew by Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin). The last czar, Nicholas II, is alternately seen as a weak master who either foolishly allowed the autocracy to founder or who failed to ride with a democratizing tide. The Russian Orthodox Church has canonized him as martyr of an idealized, God-fearing past.

The fall of Communism is the onset of freedom for some, the collapse of empire for others, and simply irrelevant to many Russians under 35, who, according to public opinion polls, simply don’t know much about 1917.

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President Trump’s associates have been indicted. Can Trump himself emerge unscathed? 

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President Trump's associates have been indicted. Can Trump himself emerge unscathed?

Early Monday, the very first charges were issued in special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation into possible coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia. Three former Trump campaign officials were indicted in the probe: Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort, and two lesser-known Trump associates Rick Gates and George Papadopoulos. So what are the details […]

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After first saying ‘send him to Gitmo,’ Trump changes his mind about N.Y. terrorism suspect 

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After first saying 'send him to Gitmo,' Trump changes his mind about N.Y. terrorism suspect

President Trump on Thursday appeared to rule out sending the New York terrorism suspect to the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, after threatening a day earlier to send the alleged attacker to the detention center. Backing off his initial statement that he was considering detaining the suspect at America’s most notorious prison, Trump said Thursday […]

How much power does a president have to prevent terrorist attacks? 

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How much power does a president have to prevent terrorist attacks?

On Tuesday afternoon, a 29-year-old Uzbek immigrant, Sayfullo Saipov, allegedly drove a rental truck down a bicycle path in Lower Manhattan. Saipov said he was inspired to carry out the attack by the Islamic State. Eight people — pedestrians and cyclists who were on the path — were killed and at least a dozen were injured […]

Arriving in Japan, Trump projects confidence, says he’ll probably meet Putin during Asia trip 

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Arriving in Japan, Trump projects confidence, says he’ll probably meet Putin during Asia trip

TOKYO — President Trump offered a brief overview of his five-country, 12-day trip to Asia as he flew from Honolulu to Tokyo on Saturday, telling reporters that he expects to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin while abroad, plans to pressure other leaders to take a tougher stance on North Korea, and thinks he is […]

Trump arrives in Seoul, tours Camp Humphreys military base on eve of North Korea speech

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Trump arrives in Seoul, tours Camp Humphreys military base on eve of North Korea speech

SEOUL — President Trump arrived in South Korea on Tuesday and toured Camp Humphreys, the third military base he has visited since leaving Washington on a 12-day trip to the Asia Pacific as he prepares to deliver a major speech on North Korea. The president landed at the $11 billion base, 40 miles south of […]

To the Citizens of Russia!

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On the hundredth anniversary of the October Revolution we are publishing the proclamation issued on November 7 (October 25, O.S.), 1917 by the Military Revolutionary Committee of the Petrograd Soviet.The proclamation was titled “K Grazhdanam Rossii (To the Citizens of Russia!)” and was distributed widely throughout Petrograd.

From the Military Revolutionary Committee of the Petrograd Soviet of Workers’ and Soldiers’ Deputies

To the citizens of Russia.

The Provisional Government has been overthrown. State power has passed into the hands of the organ of the Petrograd Soviet of Workers’ and Soldiers’ Deputies, the Revolutionary Military Committee, which stands at the head of the Petrograd proletariat and garrison.

The cause for which the people have struggled—the immediate offer of a democratic peace, the abolition of landlord ownership of land, workers’ control over industry, the creation of a soviet government—this cause has been assured!

Long live the revolution of workers, soldiers and peasants!

The Military Revolutionary Committee
of the Petrograd Soviet
of Workers’ and Soldiers’ Deputies
October 25, 1917, at 10:00 a.m.

Column: Russian meddling not surprising

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Those who claim to have been shocked the Russians might have meddled in the 2016 election are either playing for the cameras or not paying attention. They, and the Soviets before them have employed “active measures”— a technical term that applies to all kinds of espionage — in the United States and the West practically from the moment the Czar was overthrown.

For those who came in late, this kind of stuff is not new. And the U.S. does it, too. We’ve spent money on everything from propaganda to keep the Communists from coming to power in Italy after World War II to trying to oust Benjamin Netanyahu from the top job in the Israeli government.

Earlier this week, a congressional committee took a deep dive into the alleged Russian interference. The matter of foreign manipulation of the U.S. electorate is one on which Congress should tread carefully. It’s a lot more complex than the Washington politicians and the media stars who travel the Acela between New York and the nation’s capital want you to believe.

The idea was first pushed by people looking for a reason Hillary Clinton lost an election she seemed destined by fate to win. It’s true the Russians put ads on the web. It’s true the Trump campaign met with some Russians and may, as charged, have sought a few of them out to see if they had dirt on Clinton not available through normal channels.

Yet, it’s also true the Democrats were up to much the same thing. The so-called dossier on Trump prepared by Christopher Steele, variously described as a former British intelligence operative, was produced through a private opposition research effort secretly financed by the Democratic National Committee and the Clinton campaign.

That aside, some members of Congress think social media companies are to blame. As the conduits through which information about both Clinton and Trump spread through the electorate, they are supposed to shoulder much of the responsibility for what occurred.

But look at the numbers. Facebook, one of several social media companies called this past week to testify at one point volunteered that ads with content attributable to the Russians in some way went into the newsfeeds of 29 million Americans over a two-year period.

When they finally got all the way downstream they’d been seen, the company estimates, by close to 126 million people, maybe more. That’s at least a third of the country but, over the same period, Americans had more than 30 trillion items flow through their news feed.

Even if you believe every single allegedly Russian spot was read and sent along to at least one other person it constitutes less than one half of one percent of everything people saw. More importantly, no one has shown through any kind of study these ads affected the way people voted.

That’s the key. It’s not a question of whether the Russians were trying to manipulate things; they almost certainly were. The question is whether it worked. In all likelihood it didn’t, though truth is probably unknowable.

Some in Congress don’t care. Needing to look like they’re on the alert and with little consideration of the implication of what they’ve proposed, legislation to regulate Net-based ads and other political communications has already been introduced. These are regulations social media platforms will have to enforce. As blame-shifting goes, that’s like Congress telling computer manufacturers it’s their job to put a stop to hacking and identity theft.

If Congress wants to go any further down this road it should keep the focus where it belongs. Suggesting Facebook, Twitter and other social media companies are somehow complicit in espionage because their platforms were used and abused by techies working for the Russians to spread disinformation misses the point. Facebook is already working on its own to prevent a replay of what happened in 2016. So, one suspects, are the other social media companies.

The government, particularly the U.S. intelligence community should be its willing, helpful partner. Cooperation between the public and private sector will maximize both the efforts and the opportunities to keep disinformation from Russia or anywhere else from spreading while protecting our right to free speech. It’s a win-win. With the government mandates included in the legislative proposals already introduced in Congress, everyone loses.

Roff is a former senior political writer for UPI and a well-known commentator based in Washington, D.C. Email him at peter.Roff@Verizon.net.

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The Root Causes of Mass Shootings in the U.S., and the shattering of illusions – by Michael Novakhov

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4:28 PM 11/7/2017 – The Root Causes of Mass Shootings in the U.S., in my opinion – M.N. | NYT Shows How Not to Analyze Mass-Shooting Data – National Review

4:28 PM 11/7/2017 – The Root Causes of Mass Shootings in the U.S.: In my opinion:

If you admit as the hypothetical explanatory option the  hostile special intelligence operations nature of the mass killings, and it is impossible not to consider this scenario as “an”, if not “the” (in majority of cases) explanation, then all the sociological and the statistical studies become irrelevant, just as the gun ownership explanatory theory, which is indeed false, in my opinion. This latter factor might be contributing but not the root cause, and not the main causal factor in the modern-day U.S. culture. 

But the good thing is that we started to ask these questions and started to look for the answers. We should not let the conceptual stereotypes to cloud our judgment. One of such stereotypes, regarding “Al Qaeda”, started to crumble before our eyes: “21 Years of War with Al  Qaeda?” 

The so-called “ISIS” probably is the next in line of the abandoned illusions in waiting. 

“I did also call him” “Ishmael”, but we did not want to see this phenomenon, and we still do not want to face it, as most logically it is, which is the current state of de facto hybrid or intelligence war of deep and multi-dimensional deception with Russia and her overt and covert allies. Not an easy situation but not the reason for despair. Now, when the picture becomes clearer, all sorts of the proper questions will be asked, and all sorts of the proper answers will be sought. I think, one of the concerns might be the effects of the excessive liberal or conservative slants or biases, which apparently can be equally harmful and can enhance the security vulnerabilities by rocking the boat too much in either direction. The skillful political balance appears to be the key. 

It looks like the beginning of the end of the current wave of the pre-and-post-9/11  historical denial. So much for the powers of the very plausible self-deception: “I do not see it, because I do not want to see it”, just like the good old three monkeys

“Why are US mass shootings getting more deadly?” – BBC News

I did notice this trend also and mentioned it in one of my previous posts

The answer: because the planners and the organizers of these attacks do everything to approach the military efficiency in these operations. They do view them as the para-military types of operations. The preferred use of the AR-15 (Kalashnikovs or their modifications) also points in this direction, besides serving the (deadly) commercial advertising purposes. 

Michael Novakhov 

11.7.17 

Links: 

“I did also call him” “Ishmael”.

"I will call him" "Ishmael"
The Global and The US Domestic Terrorism Incidents, The Mass Shooting Incidents, and The Incidents of Shooting at the U.S. Police Officers: Comparisons and The Illustrations for The Statistical Analysis – The Brinsley’s Jacket – Last and Current Update: 11.23.16 
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“Some colleagues sent me the New York Times article “What Explains U.S. Mass Shootings? International Comparisons Suggest an Answer” today. My jaw just about hit the floor when I saw the chart that appears at the top of the piece, above everything else except the title and byline…”

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/453485/nyt-shows-how-not-analyze-mass-shooting-data

“We shouldn’t care about “gun murders” or “mass shootings”; we should care about murders in general and mass killings in general, regardless of how they’re accomplished. (Up to a point it’s essentially tautological to claim that more guns translates to more problems with guns, because a society with no guns by definition cannot have any problems with them.) As I’ve noted numerous times before, there is no simple, consistent correlation between gun ownership and murder or homicide rates in general, either among developed countries or among U.S. states. More sophisticated studies face a variety of serious methodological obstacles — I don’t find any of them that compelling — and have reached varying conclusions. The research on mass shootings in particular is in an even more primitive state.”

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/453485/nyt-shows-how-not-analyze-mass-shooting-data

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What Explains U.S. Mass Shootings? International Comparisons Suggest an Answer

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Worldwide, Mr. Lankford found, a country’s rate of gun ownership correlated with the odds it would experience a mass shooting. This relationship held even when he excluded the United States, indicating that it could not be explained by some other factor particular to his home country. And it held when he controlled for homicide rates, suggesting that mass shootings were better explained by a society’s access to guns than by its baseline level of violence.

Contributing Op-Ed Writer: Sutherland Springs Only Happens to Be in Texas

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There is nothing particularly Lone Star State-ish about a mass killing these days. Ask New York, or Las Vegas.

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The Next Phase in the War on Terror 

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Last week, in the deadliest terrorist attack in New York City since 9/11, Sayfullo Saipov turned a nearly mile-long stretch of bike path along Manhattan’s West Side Highway into a killing ground. The attack reflects a terrorism threat that is morphing from the complex, externally directed attack carried out by a network that we saw on 9/11 to violent individuals, inspired online by ISIS and other radical jihadist groups. We built an architecture to prevent another 9/11, but we have a long way to go when it comes to tackling this latest phase of terrorism.

The good news is that communities have proven resilient when attacked. The bad news is that this week—with calls for “extreme vetting” and denigration of our criminal justice system as a tool against terror—we saw dangerous backsliding instead of a renewed focus on the work needed for the next phase in the war on terror.

How should we respond to this latest terror act on our soil? Rather than demagoguing on immigration, launching divisive political attacks, or disparaging our criminal justice system, we should focus on what works. Effectiveness should be our lodestar. Russia is not the only one who wants to weaken the United States by sowing division in our country—the terrorists want to do so as well. We shouldn’t let them.

When tragedy and terror strike we must deliver swift and certain justice consistent with the rule of law. While it appears cooler heads have prevailed to reverse the President’s initial impulse to send the New York attacker to Guantanamo (an unprecedented and legally dubious move), the fact that we found ourselves having the debate yet again about “war” vs. “law enforcement” in the terror fight prompted disturbing déjà vu. Dedicated professionals across two administrations worked hard to ensure that this country can apply all tools—military, intelligence, law enforcement, diplomacy, financial sanctions—to disrupt threats and hold terrorists accountable. For terrorists caught on U.S. soil, we have relied on a criminal justice system that is the envy of the world not only because it is the hallmark of our rule of law society but also because it gets results.

The record is clear when it comes to generating intelligence, securing convictions and safely holding terrorists. The more than one million federal, state, and local law enforcement officers who work in that system put their lives on the line to keep us safe are anything but a “laughing stock.” To the contrary, they include more than 30,000 FBI agents, intelligence analysts and other professionals who I was proud to call colleagues when I served as Chief of Staff to then FBI-Director Robert S. Mueller. This nation is also served everyday by dedicated federal prosecutors who are no “joke.” That includes those in the Southern District of New York who, true to their tradition of independence, tuned out the political talk and moved swiftly to charge the New York attacker. It was precisely the need for intelligence-driven criminal prosecutions of terrorists and spies that led to the creation of the Justice Department’s National Security Division which I was privileged to lead during the Obama Administration. These elements of our post 9/11 architecture—solidified over both Republican and Democratic Administrations—have brought justice in hundreds of terrorist-related cases since 9/11.

Contrast that approach with the (hopefully short-lived) impulse to send Saipov to Guantanamo on the theory that we’re at war (we are) and he’s an enemy (he is) and enemies don’t get lawyers (not quite). The Supreme Court has determined that Guantanamo Bay, where a detainee has the right to challenge his detention, is not lawyer-free zone. And while a bipartisan effort reformed military commissions in 2009 to maintain a prosecution tool for terrorists caught on a hot battlefield, they have proven anything but swift and certain. In 15 years, the military commissions have delivered just eight convictions or guilty pleas and several of those have been overturned or invalidated. The 9/11 and U.S.S. Cole bombing victims and their families are still waiting for justice today.

Justice would not be served by sending Saipov to Guantanamo. Nor would it serve the goal of generating intelligence and understanding how Saipov came to plow down pedestrians on Halloween afternoon. Saipov reportedly has talked to FBI agents and told them that he consumed ISIS propaganda prior to his attack. Understanding more about how and when he became radicalized is critical to stopping future attacks. But the surest way to keep that from happening would be to interrupt the FBI interrogation and ship Saipov to Guantanamo.

It is dangerous pre-9/11 thinking to suggest that the FBI can’t act in this case—as it has in so many others since 9/11—to obtain intelligence from a terrorist in custody. In fact, the FBI can immediately question terrorists—without giving Miranda warnings—to identify other threats and plots. In 2011 when Congress was considering a mandatory military custody law for terrorist captures here or abroad, the FBI was right to argue that such a mandate would interrupt their intelligence gathering process by turning a terrorist over to the military where he could challenge his military detention with the benefit of a lawyer. Sure enough, in case after case where the FBI has moved quickly to gather intelligence and then bring a prosecution in our courts, terrorists have pled guilty or received lengthy sentences in the highest security Federal prisons. And importantly the FBI has been able to generate intelligence that led to the capture of other terrorists (Just ask Christmas Day bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab). We need this intelligence now more than ever in order to understand how Saipov was radicalized and how someone might have intervened in time to stop him.

It appears that Saipov did not slip through the vetting system, but instead may fall into the more-common category that DHS described in March of this year when it concluded that most foreign born, US-based terrorists are radicalized after they arrive. At the moment, we have a rare opportunity, having taken Saipov into custody alive. As NYPD Deputy Commissioner John Miller said, Saipov followed the ISIS playbook “to a tee” by weaponizing a vehicle and leaving a note to brag about it. This breed of terrorist poses a significant challenge to law enforcement and we should strive to learn as much as we can about Saipov’s path to radicalization.

In response to this challenge, we should reject impulsive responses in favor of what works. Recycling campaign chants of “extreme vetting” and pulling the plug on the Diversity Visa Program which reportedly allowed Saipov entry in 2010 is a distraction; he reportedly was radicalized years after he entered the United States. To be clear, we should support strong and thorough vetting for anyone who wants to enjoy the rights and benefits of this country. Such vetting, regardless of specific program, should be refined based on threat intelligence. This is why following the Paris attacks in 2015, the DHS strengthened the visa waiver program to respond to the threat from foreign fighter returnees who may have traveled to join ISIS in Syria and Iraq but held European passports eligible for visa-free travel to the United States. The future of the Diversity Visa Program might be a reasonable topic for debate, but based on what we know now is in no way related to the tragedy on the Westside Highway.

Rather than creating distractions and issuing blanket travel bans, our vetting process should respond to the actual threats we face. We should be building trust in communities we need to identify future threats, not alienating and marginalizing them. Let’s focus on working with social media companies to stop abuse of their platforms. Let’s work to strengthen relationships with our international security partners.

Sixteen years after 9/11 we face a different type of threat. In response, we should emulate the best we’ve seen from this country. We should model resilience and support, and we should reject politics in favor of pragmatism. We must summon the best in our communities, in our government and politics, and rely on that which makes us different from every other country in the world: the rule of law and our justice system. Anything less allows terrorists to divide us.

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21 Years of War with Al Qaeda? 

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Has the United States been at war with al-Qaeda for 21 years? During the most recent 9/11 military commission hearing at Guantanamo Bay, the prosecution finally articulated its view of when the U.S. and al-Qaeda entered into an armed conflict. According to the prosecution, that putative armed conflict began more than 21 years ago, on August 23, 1996, the day Osama bin Laden, the founder of the terrorist group, published a fatwa calling for attacks on Americans. The government characterized this fatwa as a declaration of war:

We do believe that the ’96 document written by [Osama] bin Laden, who was the head of al-Qaeda at the time he wrote it, is a declaration of war.

The prosecution apparently staked out this astonishing position, at odds with history, law, and the U.S. government’s interests outside of the 9/11 military commission, to satisfy its short-term litigation goal of preserving the military commission’s personal jurisdiction over the 9/11 defendants.

The Military Commission Act grants military commissions personal jurisdiction over “alien unprivileged belligerents.” The Act defines those as individuals who are not U.S. citizens, who are not privileged belligerents, and who either (1) engaged in hostilities against the United States or its coalition partners; (2) purposefully and materially supported hostilities against the United States or its coalition partners; or (3) were a part of al-Qaeda at the time of the alleged offense.  All three categories of individual over whom a military commission may have personal jurisdiction must have some connection to hostilities—which the MCA defines as “any conflict subject to the laws of war.”  (The timing element of the third category implicates hostilities through §950p(c), which limits offenses triable by military commission to those “committed in the context of or associated with hostilities.”)  Hostilities, in turn, are defined as any conflict subject to the laws of war.  Thus, the military commission has personal jurisdiction over the 9/11 defendants only if they were connected to an armed conflict between the U.S. and al-Qaeda prior to September 11, 2001.

Since May 2017, the 9/11 military commission is working its way towards a pre-trial, evidentiary hearing on personal jurisdiction.  It was in the context of a preliminary hearing addressing what if any witnesses should provide testimony as to personal jurisdiction that Judge Pohl pressed the prosecution for a specific date on which the armed conflict with al-Qaeda began.  The government’s response—August 23, 1996—was intended to ensure that the 9/11 military commission could proceed.  Unfortunately, that position carries with it significant ramifications implicating state sovereignty—the oldest rule in international law—and fundamental applications and consequences of the law of armed conflict.

It is axiomatic that only states may bring about the legal state of war or, in modern terms, armed conflict, through an act of speech. Historically, the law of war applied to situations of declared war between states.  When the 1949 Geneva Conventions established the modern framework for armed conflict that rests primarily on objective indicators of conflict rather than political declarations or determinations, the drafters retained the notion of declared war between states—but only for conflicts between states.  Thus, international armed conflicts—armed conflicts between two or more states—may arise upon a declaration of war alone or through the use of armed force between two states.  In contrast, non-international armed conflicts——armed conflicts between states and non-state actors (or among non-state actors)—only exist when non-state actors are sufficiently organized and violence between the parties is sufficiently intense. Whereas Common Article 2, which invokes the full panoply of the Geneva Conventions, applies only to interstate war and may be triggered merely by a declaration of war, Common Article 3 applies alone in the event of “an armed conflict not of an international character.” The drafters of the Geneva Conventions simply made no provision for a  non-international armed conflict to be triggered by means of a declaration of war.

In fact, the drafters of the Geneva Conventions intentionally excluded a declared-war trigger for non-international armed conflict. Common Article 3 reflects a careful balance: recognizing that conflicts between states and non-state actors may rise to a level of violence comparable to that of interstate armed conflict, while also accommodating states’ desire to minimize international legal regulation intruding on their internal affairs. This bargain reflects states’ aversion to conferring the sort of legitimacy or legal status on non-state actors that could challenge states’ sovereignty, including by implicitly recognizing their belligerent or insurgent status.

Thus, the final clause of Common Article 3 includes a disclaimer: “The application of the preceding provisions [Common Article 3] shall not affect the legal status of the Parties to the conflict.” Jean Pictet’s authoritative Commentary on the Geneva Conventions specifically attributes the provision’s origin to a desire to “prevent the [non-state] party from basing a claim for recognition as a regular Government on the respect it had shown for the Convention,” as required in the original Convention draft. His explanation of Common Article 3 attributes much of its evolution from its initial proposal to its final form to states’ concerns about legitimizing criminal entities.

“There was also a risk of common or ordinary criminals being encouraged to give themselves a semblance of organization as a pretext for claiming the benefit of the Conventions, representing their crimes as ‘acts of war’ in order to escape punishment for them. A party of rebels, however small, would be entitled under the Conventions to ask for the assistance and intervention of a Protecting Power. Moreover, it was asked, would not the de jure Government be compelled to release the captured rebels as soon as the troubles were over, since the application of the Convention would place them on the same footing as prisoners of war?”

Pictet concluded that without the disclaimer, Common Article 3 would not have been adopted. “It meets the fear—always the same one—that the application of the Convention, even to a very limited extent . . . may confer belligerent status, and consequently increased authority, upon the adverse party.”

The same concerns over extending legitimacy to non-state actors persists today.  Indeed, the United States has never ratified Additional Protocol I precisely because it had the potential to “give recognition and protection to terrorist groups” by extending the law pertaining to international armed conflicts to certain non-international armed conflicts. In transmitting his decision not to seek ratification of Additional Protocol I, President Ronald Reagan explained to the U.S. Senate that the application of the full panoply of international humanitarian law to armed non-state actors who do not otherwise comply with the law of armed conflict could legitimate the aims and the practices of terrorist organizations.

Nevertheless, solely in order to extend the military commissions’ jurisdiction over the 9/11 defendants, the government has chosen to legitimize bin Laden and al-Qaeda by placing them on the same legal plane as states, stating last week that:

. . . [O]ur position has always been under international law, when you have international armed conflicts, a declaration of war is sufficient alone [to trigger the law of armed conflict].

. . . .

If we were to declare war on another country today, the law of war would apply from the second we declared war. And that’s really what we are talking about. We are talking about when did the hostilities begin so we know when the law of war took over. And clearly our position has always been that we believe it began in 1996 with [Osama] bin Laden’s declaration . . . .

The military commission prosecution evidently believes that, as a matter of law, an individual or a non-state actor may, through its speech alone, unilaterally bring about a legal state of armed conflict. If the military commission were to credit the prosecution’s position, it would preserve the military commission’s jurisdiction and save the prosecution the trouble and difficulty of demonstrating the existence of a non-international armed conflict prior to 9/11. Unfortunately, the consequences of that inexplicable position are not limited to whether the 9/11 military commission may go forward.

According bin Laden’s 1996 fatwa the legal effect of a declaration of war implies that in 1996 al-Qaeda had the characteristics of a state actor. International law normally limits statehood only to those entities that are able to exert effective control over a definite territory and population, engage in international relations, and garner recognition. But none of this was true of al-Qaeda in 1996. Three months before issuing his fatwa, bin Laden and al-Qaeda were evicted from Sudan and dispossessed of their enterprises there. At the time, al-Qaeda boasted as few as several dozen members. And, seven months later, the Taliban—who by then exerted actual effective control over the territory where bin Laden resided—forced bin Laden to relocate to Kandahar from Nangarhar, where he originally established himself in Afghanistan after fleeing Sudan.

The prosecution’s position imbuing al-Qaeda with state-like powers undermine U.S. interests outside of this military commission in at least five ways.  First, it undermines the lawfulness and legitimacy of the U.S. war of self-defense against Afghanistan in the aftermath of 9/11.  If al-Qaeda were a state or something akin to a state in 1996, then by implication Afghanistan and the Taliban did not so much host al-Qaeda as surround it, as if it were an enclaved state. Under the prosecution’s view, therefore, the Taliban could not be responsible for surrendering bin Laden following the 9/11 attacks, and the United States’ ultimatum to hand him over would have been unreasonable: how could a de facto government with only partial control of its own territory be responsible for curtailing the actions of an enclaved sovereign? Consequently, if the prosecution were right that al-Qaeda was the equivalent of a state actor, the invasion of Afghanistan could be viewed as a misdirected and illegal aggressive war.

Second, the prosecution’s position necessarily suggests that the armed conflict between al-Qaeda and the United States is an international armed conflict—as opposed to a non-international armed conflict—invoking the full panoply of the laws of war.  This position also means that al-Qaeda members were the regular armed forces of a state, meaning that members of al-Qaeda could make a colorable claim to combatant immunity and prisoner-of-war (POW) status. At the very least, all of those currently detained and accused of prior membership in al-Qaeda should have been treated as POWs until they received an Article 5 hearing. (Ammar al Baluchi, for example, has requested, but never received, an Article 5 hearing.) The prosecution’s position in the 9/11 case legitimizes attacks by members of al-Qaeda on U.S. soldiers and military infrastructure, narrowing the scope of criminality associated with al-Qaeda attacks.  For example, according to the prosecution’s view, the attack on the U.S.S. Cole would remain perfidious but the sailors killed and the vessel targeted would be lawful military targets—and the charge of terrorism would be a mere restatement of the object of war: violence intended to coerce a political result.

Third, if the prosecution position prevailed, al-Qaeda would have enjoyed belligerent rights and the benefit of the laws of neutrality. Neutrality of non-belligerents is automatically triggered by the existence of a state of war between belligerents. Neutrals must remain neutral—that is they must not assist one belligerent party against the other. But belligerents must also refrain from conducting hostilities on the territory of neutral states, a fundamental protection for neutrals and against the spread of war. For example, the application of neutrality as a result of the prosecution’s position would mean that the U.S. violated Sudan’s neutrality along with its sovereignty by bombing the al-Shifa pharmaceutical facility in Khartoum in 1998.

Moreover, and outside of the immediate concerns relating to al-Qaeda, the government’s position suggests that declarations of war by non-state actors are a fast-track to sovereignty. The consequences of this implication may be far reaching. There are numerous entities that have substantially stronger claims to statehood than did al-Qaeda in 1996, but that remain outsiders in the international system. Would entities like Somaliland, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Abkhazia, and others finally gain admittance to the international system by declaring war on a neighbor or a far-off foe unlikely to take notice?

Finally, the government’s position leaves unsettled how to differentiate non-state declarations of war that have legal effect from those that do not. The U.S. has been the target of numerous supposed declarations of war by violent non-state actors to which it accorded no legal effect. For example, the United States treated neither the Symbionese National Liberation Army nor the Weathermen as enemy belligerents. Similarly, why give bin Laden’s August 1996 fatwa the legal weight of a declaration of war but not al Qaeda’s earlier 1992 fatwa that likewise called for attacks on U.S. forces in Saudi Arabia?

The only conclusion that can be drawn from the prosecution’s astounding position that bin Laden’s fatwa actually caused a legal state of war with the U.S. is that the government is willing to contort the law of armed conflict to suit its short-term litigation goals. Unfortunately, its single-minded and short-sighted effort to patch up the broken 9/11 military commission is simply making wreckage of law and history—and proving the old adage that hard cases make bad law.

The opinions and views expressed are those of the author alone. They do not represent the views of the US Department of Defense or the US Government. 

Image: Getty Read on Just Security »

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Contributing Op-Ed Writer: Sutherland Springs Only Happens to Be in Texas 

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There is nothing particularly Lone Star State-ish about a mass killing these days. Ask New York, or Las Vegas.

What Explains U.S. Mass Shootings? International Comparisons Suggest an Answer

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Worldwide, Mr. Lankford found, a country’s rate of gun ownership correlated with the odds it would experience a mass shooting. This relationship held even when he excluded the United States, indicating that it could not be explained by some other factor particular to his home country. And it held when he controlled for homicide rates, suggesting that mass shootings were better explained by a society’s access to guns than by its baseline level of violence.

What Doesn’t: Crime, Race or Mental Health

If mental health made the difference, then data would show that Americans have more mental health problems than do people in other countries with fewer mass shootings. But the mental health care spending rate in the United States, the number of mental health professionals per capita and the rate of severe mental disorders are all in line with those of other wealthy countries.

A 2015 study estimated that only 4 percent of American gun deaths could be attributed to mental health issues. And Mr. Lankford, in an email, said countries with high suicide rates tended to have low rates of mass shootings — the opposite of what you would expect if mental health problems correlated with mass shootings.

Whether a population plays more or fewer video games also appears to have no impact. Americans are no more likely to play video games than people in any other developed country.

Racial diversity or other factors associated with social cohesion also show little correlation with gun deaths. Among European countries, there is little association between immigration or other diversity metrics and the rates of gun murders or mass shootings.

A Violent Country

America’s gun homicide rate was 33 per million people in 2009, far exceeding the average among developed countries. In Canada and Britain, it was 5 per million and 0.7 per million, respectively, which also corresponds with differences in gun ownership.

Americans sometimes see this as an expression of deeper problems with crime, a notion ingrained, in part, by a series of films portraying urban gang violence in the early 1990s. But the United States is not actually more prone to crime than other developed countries, according to a landmark 1999 study by Franklin E. Zimring and Gordon Hawkins of the University of California, Berkeley.

Rather, they found, in data that has since been repeatedly confirmed, that American crime is simply more lethal. A New Yorker is just as likely to be robbed as a Londoner, for instance, but the New Yorker is 54 times more likely to be killed in the process.

They concluded that the discrepancy, like so many other anomalies of American violence, came down to guns.

More gun ownership corresponds with more gun murders across virtually every axis: among developed countries, among American states, among American towns and cities and when controlling for crime rates. And gun control legislation tends to reduce gun murders, according to a recent analysis of 130 studies from 10 countries.

This suggests that the guns themselves cause the violence.

Mass Shootings Happen Everywhere

Skeptics of gun control sometimes point to a 2016 study. From 2000 and 2014, it found, the United States death rate by mass shooting was 1.5 per one million people. The rate was 1.7 in Switzerland and 3.4 in Finland, suggesting American mass shootings were not actually so common.

But the same study found that the United States had 133 mass shootings. Finland had only two, which killed 18 people, and Switzerland had one, which killed 14. In short, isolated incidents. So while mass shootings can happen anywhere, they are only a matter of routine in the United States.

As with any crime, the underlying risk is impossible to fully erase. Any individual can snap or become entranced by a violent ideology. What is different is the likelihood that this will lead to mass murder.

In China, about a dozen seemingly random attacks on schoolchildren killed 25 people between 2010 and 2012. Most used knives; none used a gun.

By contrast, in this same window, the United States experienced five of its deadliest mass shootings, which killed 78 people. Scaled by population, the American attacks were 12 times as deadly.

Beyond the Statistics

In 2013, American gun-related deaths included 21,175 suicides, 11,208 homicides and 505 deaths caused by an accidental discharge. That same year in Japan, a country with one-third America’s population, guns were involved in only 13 deaths.

This means an American is about 300 times more likely to die by gun homicide or accident than a Japanese person. America’s gun ownership rate is 150 times as high as Japan’s. That gap between 150 and 300 shows that gun ownership statistics alone do not explain what makes America different.

The United States also has some of the world’s weakest controls over who may buy a gun and what sorts of guns may be owned.

Switzerland has the second-highest gun ownership rate of any developed country, about half that of the United States. Its gun homicide rate in 2004 was 7.7 per million people — unusually high, in keeping with the relationship between gun ownership and murders, but still a fraction of the rate in the United States.

Swiss gun laws are more stringent, setting a higher bar for securing and keeping a license, for selling guns and for the types of guns that can be owned. Such laws reflect more than just tighter restrictions. They imply a different way of thinking about guns, as something that citizens must affirmatively earn the right to own.

The Difference Is Culture

The United States is one of only three countries, along with Mexico and Guatemala, that begin with the opposite assumption: that people have an inherent right to own guns.

The main reason American regulation of gun ownership is so weak may be the fact that the trade-offs are simply given a different weight in the United States than they are anywhere else.

After Britain had a mass shooting in 1987, the country instituted strict gun control laws. So did Australia after a 1996 incident. But the United States has repeatedly faced the same calculus and determined that relatively unregulated gun ownership is worth the cost to society.

That choice, more than any statistic or regulation, is what most sets the United States apart.

“In retrospect Sandy Hook marked the end of the US gun control debate,” Dan Hodges, a British journalist, wrote in a post on Twitter two years ago, referring to the 2012 attack that killed 20 young students at an elementary school in Connecticut. “Once America decided killing children was bearable, it was over.”

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Root causes of Mass Shootings in the U.S. – Google Search

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Story image for Root causes of Mass Shootings in the U.S. from Pacific Standard

The Sad, Lonely Men Behind America’s Mass Shootings

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No, Mr. President, It Is ‘a Guns Situation’

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In little more than a month, we have had two cases of mass murder … The money could be raised by a modest tax on all guns owned in the United States. … Once more we are told that the root cause is a mentally ill person.

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It’s not Muslims, Mexicans or immigrants making the US unsafe – it’s …

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Domestic violence is a link among most mass shooters — but …

MicNov 6, 2017
Many recent mass killings have been committed by men with histories of … Acts of domestic violence are at the root of a majority of mass shootings: Everytown … The shooter in the attack had a history of domestic violence. …. really addressing what the root causes are, whether that be studies, whether that …

Thoughts About Mass Murder

Power Line (blog)17 hours ago
Moreover, the root cause of murder isn’t firearms or cars. It is evil. Countries where there are vastly fewer firearms than in the U.S. still have …

Story image for Root causes of Mass Shootings in the U.S. from FiveThirtyEight

Why High-Profile Events Like Mass Shootings Often Don’t Lead To …

FiveThirtyEightOct 18, 2017
But in the U.S., gun control policy has often appeared impossible to pass at the … This idea describes the debate after mass shootings pretty well; … health problems or declining public morals, as the root cause of the problem.
Solving Our Gun Violence Problem at the Polls
<a href=”http://TAPinto.net” rel=”nofollow”>TAPinto.net</a>Oct 18, 2017

Read the whole story
· · · · ·

Mass Shootings in the U.S. – Google Search

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What Explains US Mass Shootings? International Comparisons …

New York Times7 hours ago
From 1966 to 2012, 31 percent of the gunmen in mass shootings worldwide were American, according to a 2015 study by Adam Lankford, …
Columbine massacre no longer among 10 deadliest mass shootings …
<a href=”http://Chron.com” rel=”nofollow”>Chron.com</a>18 hours ago
Mass Shootings in America Are Spreading Like a Disease
In-DepthThe AtlanticNov 6, 2017
 –

6:17 PM 11/7/2017 – NYT Shows How Not to Analyze Mass-Shooting Data – National Review

Saved Stories

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NYT Shows How Not to Analyze Mass-Shooting Data – National Review

Omar Mateen – Google News: The Sad, Lonely Men Behind America’s Mass Shootings – Pacific Standard
The Sad, Lonely Men Behind America’s Mass Shootings – Pacific Standard
fbi orlando – Google News: Schiff to AP: Trump, Russia, GOP leaders threaten democracy – News965
State trooper shot during Route 33 traffic stop in Slate Belt – lehighvalleylive.com
Las Vegas shooting – Google News: Insane Las Vegas conspiracy theory claims Antifa, ISIS and ‘deep state’ worked together – Metro US
Remembering victims of the Sutherland Springs church shooting – mySanAntonio.com
Church security: preparing for The Worst – 41 NBC News
‘US Media Needs to Change How They Cover Mass Shootings’ Professor – Sputnik International
Dem lawmaker calls for study to examine link between domestic violence, mass shootings – The Hill
Texas police won’t use the mass shooter’s name. Why media outlets are still doing it – Globalnews.ca
FBI agents can’t crack Texas church shooter’s cell phone, officials say – mySanAntonio.com
Studies Reveal A Terrifying Connection Between Mass Shootings And Domestic Violence – BET
A fake shooter and ‘false flag’ rumors at the hospital: How dark online hoaxes came to Texas – Chicago Tribune
Omar Mateen – Google News: The role of assault rifles in US mass shootings – KSRO
Orlando shooting investigation – Google News: Mass Shooting Here? Authorities Have Plans – Government Technology
Texas church gunman escaped from mental health facility in 2012 after threatening military superiors – Washington Post
2:13 PM 11/7/2017 Interpretation update: Sutherland Springs Only Happens to Be in Texas, and it produces a lot of Joan Sutherlands, such as Papa-whom?
FBI Official: Active Shooter Numbers ‘On the Rise’ and Americans Need to ‘Prepare’ Themselves – Mediaite
Texas church shooter once escaped from mental health center – Chicago Tribune
Texas mass shooting reignites US debate about gun control – Irish Times
Church officials train to respond to active shooter – WAPT Jackson
Analysis: US mass shootings: A crisis among America’s white males? – Xinhua
Amid church shooting fallout, data shows DOD reported only 1 domestic violence conviction in 2016 – mySanAntonio.com
A mass shooter’s name is part of the story; concealing it is silly and self-important – Los Angeles Times

 

Saved Stories – None
NYT Shows How Not to Analyze Mass-Shooting Data – National Review
 


National Review
NYT Shows How Not to Analyze Mass-Shooting Data
National Review
Some colleagues sent me the New York Times article What Explains U.S. Mass Shootings? International Comparisons Suggest an Answer today. My jaw just about hit the floor when I saw the chart that appears at the top of the piece, above everything else … 
Where the guns used in Chicago actually came fromWashington Postall 58 news articles » 

 and more » 

Omar Mateen – Google News: The Sad, Lonely Men Behind America’s Mass Shootings – Pacific Standard
 


Pacific Standard
The Sad, Lonely Men Behind America’s Mass Shootings
Pacific Standard
Unlike Stephen Paddock, who killed 59 people in Las Vegas in what was the worst mass shooting in modern American history, Kelley acquired his firearms illegally; unlike Omar Mateen, who killed 49 people at an LGBT nightclub in Orlando, Florida, and …
Mass shooters exploit lapses, limited laws to get gunsWashington Post
Texas church shooting: How Trump’s reaction to mass attacks differs for US-born suspects like Devin KelleyWBAL Radio
Texas church attack the latest US mass shootingWTOP
Daily Commercial –The Denver Post –WXIA-TV
all 6,105 news articles »

 Omar Mateen – Google News

The Sad, Lonely Men Behind America’s Mass Shootings – Pacific Standard
 


Pacific Standard
The Sad, Lonely Men Behind America’s Mass Shootings
Pacific Standard
Unlike Stephen Paddock, who killed 59 people in Las Vegas in what was the worst mass shooting in modern American history, Kelley acquired his firearms illegally; unlike Omar Mateen, who killed 49 people at an LGBT nightclub in Orlando, Florida, and …
Fact Check: No, More Guns Won’t Prevent Mass ShootingsNBCNews.com
Trump says extreme vetting on guns wouldn’t stop mass shootingsCNBC 
Timeline: How Congress has responded to mass shootingsUSA TODAY
 
Police Say ‘Domestic Situation’ Led to Texas Mass Shooting

New York Magazine Texas TribuneWTSP 10 News
all 6,619 

HuffPostUSA TODAY
all 5,828
 news articles »
fbi orlando – Google News: Schiff to AP: Trump, Russia, GOP leaders threaten democracy – News965
 


News965
Schiff to AP: Trump, Russia, GOP leaders threaten democracy
News965
And he said Trump is trying to “disparage” the credibility of the FBI and congressional probes into Russia’s interference in U.S. elections and whether his own 2016 campaign was involved. “So no matter what is produced, he can say it’s a fake,” Schiff and more »

 fbi orlando – Google News

State trooper shot during Route 33 traffic stop in Slate Belt – lehighvalleylive.com
 


lehighvalleylive.com
State trooper shot during Route 33 traffic stop in Slate Belt
lehighvalleylive.com
A call from Nazareth Area School District Superintendent Dennis Riker to all parents around 11:15 a.m. said all schools were locked down due to an active shooter in the area. A follow up call about five minutes later said the lockdown had been lifted.and more »
Las Vegas shooting – Google News: Insane Las Vegas conspiracy theory claims Antifa, ISIS and ‘deep state’ worked together – Metro US
 


Metro US
Insane Las Vegas conspiracy theory claims Antifa, ISIS and ‘deep state’ worked together
Metro US
Perhaps the most implausible conspiracy theory about the Las Vegas shooting, in which Stephen Paddock killed 58 people and wounded hundreds more, claims that Antifa, ISIS and the deep state all worked together to bring about the tragic massacre.

 Las Vegas shooting – Google News

Remembering victims of the Sutherland Springs church shooting – mySanAntonio.com
 


mySanAntonio.com
Remembering victims of the Sutherland Springs church shooting
mySanAntonio.com
It was a first-time visit for one couple who died in First Baptist Church of Sutherland Springs. Others were well-known, long-time members of the community. Their deaths have left the town and the world outside it reeling. Numerous tributes and …and more »
Church security: preparing for The Worst – 41 NBC News
 


41 NBC News
Church security: preparing for The Worst
41 NBC News
(WGRZ) A pastor in Buffalo, New York is responding to the violence in Texas by pledging to bring active shooter training to his congregation. Reverend Darius Pridgen, of True Bethel Baptist Church, invited police to come into the three Western New York …
Texas church gunman, able to buy guns due to Air Force mistake, was having ‘domestic dispute’ with familyWashington Post
After Texas massacre, Upstate New York church plans active shooter trainingNewYorkUpstate.com
Texas shooting prompts questions of security, vigilance in Brevard churchesFlorida Today
TMZ.com –Fox News
all 5,849 news articles »
‘US Media Needs to Change How They Cover Mass Shootings’ Professor – Sputnik International
 

‘US Media Needs to Change How They Cover Mass Shootings’ Professor
Sputnik International
But unfortunately I have studied a number of mass shootings and it fits within a pattern so if we think back to the Orlando shooting, the FBI interviewed that suspect in advance and didn’t realize what a serious threat he was. There have been a number and more »
Dem lawmaker calls for study to examine link between domestic violence, mass shootings – The Hill
 


The Hill
Dem lawmaker calls for study to examine link between domestic violence, mass shootings
The Hill
“If we look at the recent mass shootings in Sutherland Springs, Orlando, and the Congressional Baseball Game practice, we see a noticeable trend: all these shooters acted alone and had prior history of domestic violence,” Quigley said in a statement.and more »
Texas police won’t use the mass shooter’s name. Why media outlets are still doing it – Globalnews.ca
 


Globalnews.ca
Texas police won’t use the mass shooter’s name. Why media outlets are still doing it
Globalnews.ca
While the American Behavorial Studies paper urges media to also avoid naming shooters, journalists say it’s their duty to report the facts. Most media outlets in the U.S. have continued to name Kelley, and regularly name others who carry out acts ofand more »
FBI agents can’t crack Texas church shooter’s cell phone, officials say – mySanAntonio.com
 


mySanAntonio.com
FBI agents can’t crack Texas church shooter’s cell phone, officials say
mySanAntonio.com
FBI agents can’t crack Texas church shooter’s cell phone, officials say. By Caleb Downs, mySA.com / San Antonio Express-News. Updated 12:31 pm, Tuesday, November 7, 2017. 3. Here’s what we know so far about the Sutherland Springs church shooting …and more »
Studies Reveal A Terrifying Connection Between Mass Shootings And Domestic Violence – BET
 


BET
A fake shooter and ‘false flag’ rumors at the hospital: How dark online hoaxes came to Texas – Chicago Tribune
 


Chicago Tribune
A fake shooter and ‘false flag’ rumors at the hospital: How dark online hoaxes came to Texas
Chicago Tribune
In Sunday’s version of the rumor, Sam Hyde was said to have killed 26 people inside a church in Sutherland Springs, Texas – just as he had been blamed a month earlier for the mass shooting in Las Vegas, and in San Bernardino, California; Minneapolis and more »
Omar Mateen – Google News: The role of assault rifles in US mass shootings – KSRO
 


KSRO
The role of assault rifles in US mass shootings
KSRO
In the early morning of June 12, 2016, 29-year-old Omar Mateen crashed a night of partying at Pulse, a gay nightclub in Orlando, Florida, killing 49 people and injuring 53 others. Mateen took clubgoers hostage before slaying them. He died after 

 Omar Mateen – Google News

Orlando shooting investigation – Google News: Mass Shooting Here? Authorities Have Plans – Government Technology
 


Government Technology
Mass Shooting Here? Authorities Have Plans
Government Technology
Moore noted his department in recent years has emphasized preventing violence through training officers to deal with people with mental-health problems and in handling domestic-violence investigations–two factors that might have played roles in the

 Orlando shooting investigation – Google News

Texas church gunman escaped from mental health facility in 2012 after threatening military superiors – Washington Post
 


Washington Post
Texas church gunman escaped from mental health facility in 2012 after threatening military superiors
Washington Post
The gunman who opened fire in a church outside San Antonio, killing at least 26 people, escaped from a mental health facility in 2012 after he was caught sneaking guns onto an Air Force base and attempting to carry out death threats made against 
Remembering victims of the Sutherland Springs church shootingmySanAntonio.com
Texas church shooter ‘was there to kill everybody,’ source saysABC News
Texas church shooter Devin Patrick Kelley’s troubled past emergesCNN once escaped from mental health centerChicago Tribune
CNN
KSAT San Antonio Patch.com –New York Times
all 6,252 6,460 news articles »
2:13 PM 11/7/2017 Interpretation update: Sutherland Springs Only Happens to Be in Texas, and it produces a lot of Joan Sutherlands, such as Papa-whom?

Joan Sutherland “Casta diva” from “Norma” Joan Sutherland “Casta diva” from “Norma” – YouTube Tuesday November 7th, 2017 at 2:02 PM 1 Share Sutherland Springs Only Happens to Be in Texas 2:13 PM 11/7/2017 – Interpretation update:  “Sutherland Springs Only Happens to Be in Texas“, and it produces a lot of “Joan Sutherlands”, such as “Papa-whom?”, etc., … Continue reading“2:13 PM 11/7/2017 – Interpretation update: “Sutherland Springs Only Happens to Be in Texas”, and it produces a lot of “Joan Sutherlands”, such as “Papa-whom?”…”Download audio: https://av.voanews.com/clips/VEN/2017/11/06/20171106-070000-VEN119-program_hq.mp3Download audio: https://av.voanews.com/clips/VEN/2017/11/06/20171106-190000-VEN119-program_hq.mp3
FBI Official: Active Shooter Numbers ‘On the Rise’ and Americans Need to ‘Prepare’ Themselves – Mediaite
 


Mediaite
FBI Official: Active Shooter Numbers ‘On the Rise’ and Americans Need to ‘Prepare’ Themselves
Mediaite
The number of active shooter incidents have skyrocketed in the past two decades. America in the year 2000 was plagued by just one shooter that deliberately sought out populated areas. 2015? 20 shooters. That’s one horrifying episode every 18 days.and more »
Texas church shooter once escaped from mental health center – Chicago Tribune
 


Chicago Tribune
Texas church shooter once escaped from mental health center
Chicago Tribune
The gunman’s phone was flown to an FBI lab for analysis, but agents have yet to access it, said Christopher Combs, who is in charge of the agency’s San Antonio division. The inability to access the shooter’s phone highlights a longstanding frustrationand more »
Texas mass shooting reignites US debate about gun control – Irish Times
 

Texas mass shooting reignites US debate about gun control
Irish Times
In the small town of Floresville, 16km southwest of Sutherland Springs where Devin Kelley opened fire on Sunday, people are still coming to terms with the attack that claimed the lives of 26 people and left many more injured. On Sunday the Connally …and more »
Church officials train to respond to active shooter – WAPT Jackson
 


WAPT Jackson
Church officials train to respond to active shooter
WAPT Jackson
An active shooter training program, called Civilian Response to an Active Shooter Event, was held Tuesday at the Mississippi Department of Public Safety. The class was not for those who carry guns but for people who work inside a church building.
Analysis: US mass shootings: A crisis among America’s white males? – Xinhua
 


Xinhua
Analysis: US mass shootings: A crisis among America’s white males?
Xinhua
6 (Xinhua) — With so many U.S. mass shootings, it begs the question of whether there’s a crisis among white males — the demographic that has carried out the vast majority of mass murders in recent decades. This weekend saw a mass shooting in a church and more »
Amid church shooting fallout, data shows DOD reported only 1 domestic violence conviction in 2016 – mySanAntonio.com
 


mySanAntonio.com
Amid church shooting fallout, data shows DOD reported only 1 domestic violence conviction in 2016
mySanAntonio.com
Kelley slaughtered 26 worshipers at the First Baptist Church in Sutherland Springs southeast of San Antonio Sunday in the midst of what investigators said was a domestic dispute with his mother-in-law. RELATED: Killer celebrated with Sutherland  
TEXAS CHURCH SHOOTING: Hospitals have a dozen wounded from shootingWKYT
Pope sends condolences to Texas shooting victimsKWTXall 25 news articles » 

 and more » 

A mass shooter’s name is part of the story; concealing it is silly and self-important – Los Angeles Times
 


Los Angeles Times
A mass shooter’s name is part of the story; concealing it is silly and self-important
Los Angeles Times
As anyone who has taken a high school journalism class knows, one of the 5 Ws that reporters should be careful to include in the first paragraph of a news story is who. Usually that means providing the name of the newsmaker, whether his actions are …

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3:39 PM 11/7/2017 – Interpretation update: “Sutherland Springs Only Happens to Be in Texas”, and it produces a lot of “Joan Sutherlands”…

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Joan Sutherland “Casta diva” from “Norma”

2:13 PM 11/7/2017 – Interpretation update: “Sutherland Springs Only Happens to Be in Texas”, and it produces a lot of “Joan Sutherlands”, such as “Papa-whom?”…

2:13 PM 11/7/2017 – Interpretation update: 

Sutherland Springs Only Happens to Be in Texas“, and it produces a lot of “Joan Sutherlands”, such as “Papa-whom?”, etc., who are ready to sing their arias in Mr. Mueller’s opera. Remember, what happens to these singers. “Son, how un-tony-o!”

And by the way, the happy 100-th anniversary of the Great October Socialist Revolution! 

P.S. And you better check your address book. It still is the same old address, like in your old postings:  “Tempra, o Diva: Anti-Americanism in Putin Doctrine as Stalinist Xenophobia Redux by Mike Nova”. Do not hang it on me, khekhe… 

M.N.: Interpretation: “Son, Un-tony-o”. – 11.6.17

2:13 PM 11/7/2017 – San Antonio church shooting – News Review Update

See also:

Tempra, o Diva: Anti-Americanism in Putin Doctrine as Stalinist Xenophobia Redux by Mike Nova


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2:52 PM 10/25/2017 – Did foreign paid social media ads affect the outcome of elections 2016? Do the high quality and high power statistical study.

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The opinions range from:

TO:
    • I formulate the question:
    Did foreign paid social media ads affect the outcome of elections 2016?
    To answer this question, do the high quality and high power statistical study. The more or less definitive answer, within the range of probabilities, is difficult but possible. And it is vital for establishing cause-effect legal relationships in Mueller’s Investigation.
    Ask pollster Nate Silver, for example, in collaboration with the leading university statistics departments.
    M.N.  – 10.25.17
    • Nate Silver – GS
      • Did foreign paid social media ads affect the outcome of elections 2016? – GS:

Did foreign paid social media ads affect the outcome of elections 2016? – Google Search

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Story image for Did foreign paid social media ads affect the outcome of elections 2016? from Daily Mail

Twitter will disclose who is paying for political adverts after Russian …

Daily Mail10 hours ago
The social media giant has acted amid claims the Kremlin illicitly bankrolled an online campaign to help Donald Trump win the 2016 US …

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11:49 AM 10/25/2017 – A common link is a sharp contrast to the opinion polls, pre-election, and pre-referendum…

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A common link in

A sharp contrast to the opinion polls, pre-election, and pre-referendum.

Questions:

  • Did they target their “key (attuned, worked on) voters” in the key areas, according to the polls information? 
  • Did they manipulate the opinion polls or their samples? 
  • Was the interference in Brexit vote a dress rehearsal for Trump vote?  

M.N. – 10.25.17 

Links

Cambridge Analytica Social Media Posts in Trump and Brexit campaigns – Google Search

1 Share

Story image for Cambridge Analytica Social Media Posts in Trump and Brexit campaigns from WIRED

What We Know—and Don’t Know—About Facebook, Trump, and …

WIREDSep 26, 2017
The constantly evolving story of how the socialnetworking giant found … In an Oct. 2 blog post, Facebook said roughly 10 million people saw the …. Were the ads targeting the same audiences as Trump’s campaign? … to Cambridge Analytica, President Trump’s data-mining firm during the 2016 election.

Story image for Cambridge Analytica Social Media Posts in Trump and Brexit campaigns from Foreign Policy (blog)

SitRep: More US Carriers Arrive in Pacific As North Korea …

Foreign Policy (blog)3 hours ago
… of Bannon-linked firm Cambridge Analytica $330,000 for a public relations campaign against Qatar on social media. … President Trump is ghosting on the annual East Asia Summit being held this year … Brexit meddling. … by the Washington Post, which reported that the Hillary Clinton Campaign and the …

Story image for Cambridge Analytica Social Media Posts in Trump and Brexit campaigns from Newsweek

Trolls, Bots and Fake News: The Mysterious World of Social Media …

NewsweekOct 14, 2017
For Trump’s digital media director for the campaign, Brad Parscale, … purport to be real people—can produce as many as 1,000 social media posts a day. … CEO of Cambridge Analytica Alexander Nix speaks at a conference in New ….. It is notable that bots were not exclusive to the pro-Brexitmovement.

Story image for Cambridge Analytica Social Media Posts in Trump and Brexit campaigns from The Verge

Cambridge Analytica isn’t worried about Facebook ad restrictions

The VergeOct 3, 2017
Cambridge Analytica isn’t worried about Facebook ad restrictions … advantage of many of the same tactics as part of the firm’s work for the Trump campaign, … The Guardian has also connected the firm to a Brexit campaign, although … Even social media, which was supposedly the area where you could …

Story image for Cambridge Analytica Social Media Posts in Trump and Brexit campaigns from Quartz

The dark arts of international lobbyists and spin doctors are infecting …

QuartzSep 29, 2017
… the negotiating table than with flagging dangerous posts and tweets. In Kenya, the role of the US data firm Cambridge Analytica has come … Its tactics are credited with helping bring about both the Trump presidency and the Brexit vote. … off the #SomeoneTellLevick social media campaign to bash the PR …

Story image for Cambridge Analytica Social Media Posts in Trump and Brexit campaigns from Center for Research on Globalization

How Brexit Was Engineered by Foreign Billionaires to Bring About …

Center for Research on GlobalizationOct 19, 2017
One alarmingly frank quote says: “SCL/Cambridge Analytica was not some …. She used to be Chief Executive of the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ), … of the last presidential race that saw Donald Trumpmove into the Whitehouse. … in many pies and strongly networked with other think-tanks and the media.

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11:00 AM 10/25/2017 – The E-Curtain

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Image result for The Russia - West E-Curtain

The Russia – West E-Curtain – GS

The Russians want to build the new E-Curtain, prophylactically, to protect themselves from the evil Western influences. At least a part, if not all the Trump-Russia show-off operation might be an FSB counterintelligence endeavor, very aggressive, as is their tradition historically, and also outgrowing into the frank intelligence show-off “special operation”. And all this to demonstrate the dangers of the single Internet and to divide it into two separate informational bastions: pro-Russian and the rest. Very isolationist, narrow-minded, and very Russian in its mentality. These are the goals and purposes Of this new E-Curtain, which is impossible to impose unilaterally but only by mutual consent. Will never happen. M.N. – 10.25.17

See also Mr. Hoffman on this subject: 

 Former CIA station chief warns of ‘authoritarian internet’

UK Lawmakers Ask Facebook About Russian Influence in Brexit Vote – New York Times
Hopes Dim for Congressional Russia Inquiries as Parties Clash – New York Times
Congress is turning Russia investigations into a partisan mess – Salon – Salon
Republicans open investigations into Clinton uranium deal and Obama DOJ – ABC News
Mueller’s Russia investigation: What to know | Fox News – Fox News
Clinton campaign, DNC paid for research that led to Russia dossier … – Washington Post
The Senate Judiciary Committee’s Russia Probe Just Blew Up – Mother Jones
Courting Democratic Ire, Republicans Open New Obama-Era Inquiries – New York Times
Trump offer to pay Russia probe legal bills for aides is a terrible idea – USA TODAY
The Clinton camp and DNC funded what became the Trump-Russia dossier: Here’s what it means – Washington Post
Trump Was Showered With Russian Flags by a Protester Shouting ‘Treason,’ Video Shows – Newsweek
Protester Throws Russian Flags At Trump As He Arrives For Capitol Hill Tax Lunch – NPR
Congress opens probe into FBI’s handling of Clinton e-mail investigation – Ars Technica
Just Security: The Early Edition: October 24, 2017
2016 Presidential Election Investigation – Google News: MPs are reportedly going to demand Facebook reveals details of alleged Russian meddling in the Brexit vote – Business Insider
1. Trump from mikenova (196 sites): putin won US 2016 election – Google News: I’m ‘sick and tired’ of how US views Russia, says CEO of Russia’s second-largest bank – CNBC
What Is Money-Laundering? And Why Does It Matter To Robert Mueller? – NPR
Russia’s Favored Outlet Is an Online News Giant. YouTube Helped. – New York Times
Trump’s Re-Election Edge Is Greatly Exaggerated – Bloomberg
Trump Plans To Help Pay Aides’ Legal Costs For Russia Probes – LEX18 Lexington KY News
Graham to Trump: ‘Go after Russia because they’re coming after us’ – CNN
Graham to Trump: ‘Go after Russia because they’re coming after us’ – NBC Montana
Who is Tony Podesta? Russia Probe Investigating Brother of Hillary Clinton Campaign Chair – Newsweek
Why Robert Mueller May Be the Last Hope to Link Trumpworld to Russia – Vanity Fair
Hillary’s Circle: John Podesta’s Brother is Being Investigated by the Special Counsel – Townhall

 


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